Optimization Analysis Of Economic Spatial Structure Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based On ESDA And CSDA

This thesis analyses economic spatial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis(ESDA)and Confirmatory Spatial Data Analysis (CSDA), considering historical development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region: it is very unusual that Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has had three or more administrative divisions in a period of peace and stability for a long time. From the current economic spatial pattern of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the three regions are making vicious competition,which doesn't form a good pattern of industries gradient and result in a serious convergence of industrial structure and substantial waste of resources. According to technical analysis from ESDA, Moran'I and CV values of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are increasing,which shows the gaps between different regional economies are widening and that the economical affluent counties and backward counties of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are constantly centralizing in their respective regional space. Local Moran's I values indicate that the developed region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in 1992-2007 focused mainly on Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei Langfang, Tangshan and their neighborhood,whose areas have significant spillover effects, and backward areas mainly concentrated in the north-western Hebei, central and southern regions, which have a clear polarization effect. According to technical analysis from CSDA, Spatial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei belongs to space error model, which shows that the actual scope radiated by Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic growth may not match the current administrative divisions ,which is the main reason that influences spatial dependence relation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei economic growth. From the aspect of the convergence rate ,its value is significantly lower than the national average. With the above analysis, the answers to irrationality of the current spatial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are as follows: in the planned economic system, the government-led intervention made the economic center separate from economic hinterland, resulting in distortion of the allocation of regional resources, bringing about unreasonable economic spatial structure. Finally, incorporataing the experience of the cosmopolitan city and the historical experience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the paper argues that it is necessary to make Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei merger as an integral whole so as to establish an unified management of the Big Beijing Administrative Region. Only in this way can a number of economic issues be fundamentally solved which are caused by unreasonable spatial structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.