A Study On The Real Estate Credit Scale In China To Real Estate Price

Since 1998 China’s housing reform,China’s real estate market has experienced rapid development so far.Commercial and residential sales area of average annual growth is about 14%,which is higher than the growth rate of per capita GDP and GDP. As a pillar industry of the national economy,the real estate industry plays an important role in growth. At the same time the real estate market is closely related to the development of the credit support of financial institutions. Credit funds have a major impact on the real estate investment companies and real estate demanders. The real estate credit not only give effective financial support to the real estate market,bue the loan faster and violent way affect the macroeconomic and output through the real estate prices.Therefore, we need to maintain stable and healthy development of the real estate market,and study how real estate credit scale affects real estate prices. Explore what kind of relationship exists between the two,whether there is a causal relationship. In this paper, real estate credit as an entry point to study their impact on housing prices,including theoretical analysis and empirical test.Firstly,review and sort out the relevant domestic and international literature. Credit rationing theory, the theory of permanent income, life cycle and behavioral decision theory and other related theories are overviewed. On this basis, the real estate credit mechanism to analyze the impact on real estate prices. By studying the structure of intertemporal consumption model to achieve maximum effectiveness at the performance of the real estate credit. Analysis shows that buyers of housing consumption generated by the utility,mainly depends on the commitment in advance to meet the housing needs and preferences choose between repayments paid.Then we construct the modle of real estate prices and credit conditions based on disposable income,and another model of the two based on supply and demand,which are basis for the following empirical.Apart from this,theoretical analysis found that overconfidence and herd behavior will increase the demand for real estate, as well as quantitative analysis model construction loans and personal level between overconfidence.To further verify the relationship between the size of the real estate credit and real estate prices, we carry out two-part empirical test.The first part is static empirical analysis of the two pricing models constructed.Throught analysis results we get that: urban per capita disposable income increased by 1 percent, making real estate prices rose 0.49%;Real estate credit amount increase every 1%, making the real estate prices rose 0.5%.In the second part we construct VAR model for dynamic empirical test.By using cointegration analysis, causality test and impulse analysis and other methods, empirical results suggest that long-term stable relationship exist between real estate credit and real estate prices,and have a causal relationship between each.In the short term, the role of the relationship between the real estate credit and real estate price changes obvious.The first two of real estate credit have a major impact on the current real estate prices.While its real estate prices have also been affected, of which the first three have greater affect.Real estate price is more sensitive to fluctuations in the real estate credit and positive role will maintain a certain period of time.