Analysis Of The Impact Of Bank Credit On China's Real Estate Market

The real estate industry,as a pillar industry,has an important impact on China's economy,society,and people's livelihood as well.In recent years,real estate prices in China have continued to rise,and prices in some regions have even exceeded the growth rate of per capita income of residents.Excessive housing prices have posed a hidden threat to the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.Therefore,the main research objectives of this article will focus on what factors affect the changes in real estate prices and how to effectively curb the rapid rise in real estate prices.As an important source of funds for real estate development projects and residential purchases,the impact of bank real estate development loans and individual residential mortgage loans on real estate prices is the focus of this study.Based upon the research on plenty of references,this paper also takes some other factors affecting real estate prices into consideration like the regional economic level,urbanization degree,real estate supply and real estate market control policies.Regarding the theoretical analysis of this paper,it focuses on the impact mechanism of bank real estate credit on the supply and demand of the real estate market and the real estate price.The empirical analysis section takes the panel data of the country's 30 provinces for the period of 15 years from 2002 to 2016 as the research object.Each province is grouped considering the geographical area,population urbanization rate,regional GDP,and real estate development loan amount,respectively.The multivariable linear regression model is used for empirical analysis to test the effect of factors such as bank real estate credit on real estate prices in different research contexts.The empirical results show that the bank's real estate development credit plays a positive role in promoting the overall real estate price,especially in the regions with rapid economic development in the eastern and central regions.The increase in the personal housing loan interest rate can significantly curb the rise in real estate prices.In the provinces where real estate prices are relatively high,this suppression effect becomes more prominent.In addition,in the regions where the urbanization rate of the population is low and economic development relatively backward,macroeconomic policies are more effective than other factors in regulating house prices,while changes in housing completion area have no significant impact on real estate price fluctuations.Finally,based upon the research,this article puts forward some recommended relevant policy.It aims to stabilize the price of the real estate by adjusting the real estate credit structure of banks,improving the differential interest rate pricing mechanism,increasing the supply of affordable housing,and establishing long-term macro-control mechanisms.