Research On Financial Risk Early Warning Of Commodity Trade

Recently, the abnormal phenomenon began to appear in part of China features as excessive growth of the bulk stock trade financing which is out of the enterprise normal turnover. Some businesses, through” false trading and real financing”, gain loans by using the bulk stock trade financing. Then, the loans are diverted to projects in some capital markets of high risk which is hard to obtain the credit loans from the bank, such as real estate, folk lending, futures, etc.,attempting to repay the bank low interest rates credit by high profit and making unfair profits. It will have a great potential risks if bulk stock financing develops far away from the real trade background and self-liquidating.Bulk stock trading financial risk problem has attracted extensive attention of the scholars.However, studies for bulk stock trade financial agglomeration and transmission mechanism research are relatively far from enough. In this paper, combining with the current macroeconomic situation, the author focus on problems existing in the development of trade finance innovation, makes tracing investigation on bulk stock trade of financial risk conduction,develop monitoring index and analyzes and guards against credit risk in order to promote the rapidly development of the bulk stock trade financing business in an health and proper way. This thesis aims to eliminate the financial risk of agglomeration and conduction. Promote the development of the export-oriented enterprises and promoting the health development of China’s macroeconomic in the concrete practice.Based on related literature at home and abroad and the current financial situation, the author holds that bulk stock financialization is prerequisite of financial risk conduction trade,while China’s huge trade demand for commodities is the dynamics condition of financial risk.The price of the bulk stock will not only determined by supply and demand both sides negotiate in the gradually open international futures market, but by the operation of international investment institutions. Bulk stock conducts financial risk through international trade channels,which fully embodies in the trade under current account funds. Therefore, financial fluctuation in the international market will conduct to the domestic by the current account. That is to say, trade finance equally changes the influence of such a current account in the domestic to financial market impact which is characterized by "financial performance on both ends, intermediate trade conduction" way of financial risk conduction. The financialization of bulk stock trade, is the main reason for the financial risk developing in the domestic accumulation. Because of the tightening monetary policy, credit bank shouldering and rate difference existing both at homeand abroad, some enterprises select the international trade financing as the main channel of profit.The financial volatility feedback and circulating accumulation among physical assets price fluctuations, the supply of credit expansion and contraction, are the accumulation of financial risks in the domestic mechanism. If international bulk stock prices fall rapidly, asset sharply shrinking, will cause a decline in the enterprise original mortgage assets, the assets of enterprises and banks will shrink. Therefore, while banks begin to recovery of loans, the enterprise will produce capital chain rupture, and then spread to other companies and banks and thus form a serious financial risks.In reference to the developed countries in the world financial risk monitor early warning index system and classic the existing research results at home and abroad, combing the present situation of the basic national conditions, this thesis analyzes from the external factors and internal influence factors, aiming to construct the financial risk early warning index system of bulk stock trade. And cases chosen 2010-2014 in southern region bulk stock trade financing risk have been carried on in the empirical analysis. From which, the author of this thesis draws the corresponding conclusions and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the state financial regulator, banking institutions and enterprises.