Study On Calculation Method Of Concession Period Of Mixed Financing PPP Project Under Uncertainty Of Income

It is an important measure to lead the private capital to spend on infrastructure construction for the reform of financing structure in the field of infrastructure in our nation, which makes the financing mode go from state single investment to multilateral co-investment, that is PPP(Public Private Partnership) project of mixed financing. Then, all the investors have raised concern about analysing and calculating the concession period of PPP project in mixed financing mode. Therefore, this paper has presented a methodology to calculate the concession period of PPP project in mixed financing mode. The research work are as follows:(1) Analysis of literature. This paper has summaried the application of the financial analysis in the decision-making process of the concession period by analysing the literature. Besides, it has summaried the defination and classification of the concession period. Based on the analysis of literature, this paper has first proposed the mixed financing mode of PPP project and definated the concession period of this mode. Then, it has further identified certainty and uncertainty factors that impact the concession period. For instance, the certain factors of the highway project include the construction period and the investment, while during the operating period, the traffic volume, operation cost and tariff regime of transprotation are treated as uncertainty factors.(2) Modeling of calculating the concession period. According to the investment analysis theory of financial management, this paper has put forward the calculation model of concession period based on the definition on the concession period, which can determine the concession period for different proportions of contribution and the private gains should be allocated according to the preset proportions by the method of theoratical modeling and simulation.(3) Simulated analysis and vertification of the calculation model. In accordance with the factors of literature analysis, it has established the functions of income. Then it has designed the simulation flow and written the program by Matlab language combined with the decision model. Besides, an example has worked through to illustrate the calculation model.(4) Case study. This paper has explained the specific application process of the calculation model and a case of a highway in Qingdao. It has further illustrated the effectiveness and reliability of the decision model of the concession period of PPP project in mixed financing mode.The above research has demonstrated that the proposed calculation model is of great theoratical significance and practical application value for the problem of calculating the concession period of PPP project, which is funded by both the government and the private captical. On the one hand, this thesis has enriched the decision-making theory of concession period and widen the research thinking in the field of PPP project from the unique perspective. On the other hand, the proposed decision-making model of concession period can calculate the concession period for different proportions of contribution, and the private gains should be allocated according to the preset proportions based on the transporation context. Then, the government can determine the specific concession period, while the private can make a choice of investing or not according to the proportions of contribution and the gains proportions.