Research On Decision-Making Model On Concession Period For Infrastructure BOT Project

Infrastructure Services in material production and the public’s daily life, it is the basis for long-term, stable and sustainable development of the national economy. With the rapid development of the economy and the rapid increase in population size, national demand for infrastructure has increased dramatically. However, the government as a provider of infrastructure, massive infrastructure funding has brought enormous pressure to the government’s finances, the government alone can not meet the financial needs of infrastructure, the lack of funds has become an important infrastructure constraints for the construction of infrastructure. BOT model can attracts social investors to pour money into the construction of infrastructure, make up for the lack of infrastructure funding of the government, increase the supply of infrastructure, provide a strong foundation and motivation for economic development. BOT model infrastructure has been widely adopted in the field of infrastructure construction.Concession agreement is the core of BOT projects and the concession period is the one of the most important core provisions concession agreement of the concession agreement, the length of the concession period has a direct influence for the distribution of benefits between the government and the project company, even determines the success of BOT projects. Design a scientific and reasonable concession period and reasonably adjust the concession period according to the actual operating conditions of the project after the project put into operation, have a crucial impact for the success of BOT projects.This paper firstly summarizes the relevant literature on he BOT project Concession decision at home and abroad from two aspects including the factors influencing the concession period and the decision methods of the concession period, and briefly comments the research mentioned above,then clears the content and direction of this paper to study, summarizes and briefly commentsSecondly, through to summarize the related concepts and theories as well as the game theory, demonstrates that there are practical and theoretical basis for choosing this subject, and provides a solid foundation for the subsequent discussion.Again, based on the game theory, construct game model of concession period with the principles maximizing the social benefits of the Government and its own economic interests of the project company,solves the optimal concession period of the project.Finally, due to the huge amount of investment and the long duration of operation of the project in infrastructure projects, in the course of the operation of the project,project company is facing a lot of uncertainty, this paper using the analysis method of mathematical model analyzes that after the uncertain factors appear,maintaining pre-set period concession easy to make items too high or too low, not conducive to the smooth running of the project; this paper set the upper limit and lower limit of the project benefits that the project company and the government accepted and build a model of the concession period adjustments according to the relationship between the actual benefits of the oroject and the upper limit and lower limit to ensure the project to achieve a reasonable profit and improve the ability of the project to cope with risks;At the end of the paper adopts the case analysis to verify the correctness of the models builded in the paper.