The Spillover Effects Of The Supply Chain Variance Risk

Supply chain management, a new management pattern, has obtained huge success in some enterprises, such as Dell, HP, Haire and so on. Supply chain management has brought opportunity and competitive power to enterprises, meanwhile, it has brought many kinds of new risks, and these risks have bigger destructiveness than those of traditional management patterns. The risk of one note could influence other note in the supply chain. It could transmit in the supply chain, and could make change in this process, which was named ripple effect of risk. Ripple effect of risk could give this supply chain which it was in and other supply chain the fatal attack.Some parameters chain may deviate from the expectancy value or average in the supply chain, such as demand, price, cost, and so on, and then there is a variance risk. The variance risk in the supply chain can be transmitted from a node to other nodes, and influence some parameters of other nodes. All these problems are worth studying and exploring. The paper mainly involves the ripple effect of market demand variance risk and supplier's price variance risk.This paper researches some contents as follows:(1)Expand some relative models, considering node's dynamic pricing tactics, we establish a model about how the nodes make their decision in the supply chain. On the base of that, we establish a research model about ripple effect of variance risk.(2)Using the model and Matlab tool, we have analyzed the ripple effect of market demand variance risk. In the aspect of ripple, when the price is steady, we research the demand, and when the price is not steady, we research the demand and the price. In the aspect of effect, we research the profit. In both ripple and effect, we compare different node's ripple and effect, and the rule they change. We also compare the ripple effect of market demand variance risk in different largest market demand.(3)Using the model and Matlab tool, we have analyzed the ripple effect of supplier's price variance risk. In the aspect of ripple, we research the demand and the price, and in the aspect of effect, we research the profit. In both ripple and effect's research, we compare different node's ripple and effect, and the rule they change.(4)Using the model and Matlab tool, we have analyzed the ripple effect when market demand variance risk and supporter's price variance risk both exist.