Based On The Risk Transfer Model Of Supply Chain Risk Assessment Methods

The purpose of supply chain risk assessment is to fully grasp the risk of overall supply chain performance, and provide decision support for effective risk management, This paper fully considers the conduction effect of risk, builds a risk conduction model, and provides risk assessment method, to assess supply chain risk from three aspect which is risk factors, the node enterprises and supply chain network.This paper firstly introduces the research background of the thesis and main basis for selection, and reviews literatures and main theory relevant to content of this paper, which provides a basis for this article.Secondly, the paper elaborates relevant theoretical knowledge of supply chain risk and conduction effect of risk. By summing up the definition of supply chain risk, characteristics of supply chain risk are described, and key elements of risk transmission are introduced, besides, characteristics and patterns of risk transmission are analyzed.Then the paper provides a risk identification method which is based on risk conduction effect, and gives a measurement method of risk, a measurement of risk conduction intensity and risk polymerization method by aiming at risk factors and risk transmission path which has been identified. That provides support to build the model of the risk conduction of supply chain and risk assessment.Thirdly, this paper builds a model of risk conduction of supply chain on the basis of Chapter three. To simplify the model, firstly propose four-point hypothesis, and then give solution elements and process of assessment factors, assessment factors include the risk probability, number of risk factors' descendants, number of affected enterprises and risk factors made to enterprise and loss expectation that risk factors made to whole supply chain and so on.Lastly, this paper mades a quantitative risk assessment from risk factors, enterprises and entire network aspect, and use a representative example to set out the application of this model in supply chain risk assessment, verifies correctness of assessment method and give corresponding risk management recommendations.The supply chain risk assessment method based risk conduction model in this paper have the following advantages:(1) Risk conduction model makes a full consideration of risk conduction effect in supply chain, and improves accuracy and comprehensiveness of risk assessment.(2) This method can accurately assess the most threatening risk factors and enterprise in supply chain network, and provide more effective decision support for supply chain risk management.(3) This method is able to calculate the values of loss utility of supply chain networks, and provide a reference to the improvement of supply chain.