On The Establishment Of The National Debt Risk Assessment And Early Warning System

The national debt is a form of state credit. It is an important tool of fiscal policy and monetary policy. The size of the national debt a country has is related to the regulatory role of national macroeconomic policies directly. The ability of financial reimbursement a country gets is linked to the government's credit level, and the stability of the entire national economy and social closely. Since our country has issued treasury bonds in 1981, the rapid expansion of the scale of treasury bonds imposed enormous pressure to financial reimbursement. The peak of a debt emerged one by one, so the risks the government is facing can not be overlooked. This paper is based on that status to research the level of bond reimbursement risk our country has. Then the paper establishes a comprehensive and effective system to assess and early warn the risk, while hoping to provide recommendations for the balance management of our national debt.This paper has four parts:The first outlines the national debt risk. It defines that the national debt this paper refers to is the bonds issued by the central government debt. Then the national debt risk researched is identified as the reimbursement risk that the financial is unable to repay the scheduled bonds in the normal channels. There are diverse methods about study abroad on government bonds risk with a long history, including the sustainability analysis, conventional indicators analysis, synthetic indicators analysis and assets and liabilities analysis. The synthetic indicators analysis is suit to China's national debt management status, and what our research is lack for. So this method is the choice of analyzing our national debt risk in this paper.The second one analyzes the conditions of our national debt risk. In the 20 years' history of our national debt development, it has achieved very remarkable results. The primary and secondary markets continue to improve, but the risk of government bond came into being. Although the various research methods and conclusions on this risk are inconsistent, they all show our national debt should be controlled. Our government needs a effective methods to prevent the financial and economic risks caused by the...