China's Insurance Demand Factors In Empirical Analysis

As to the practical analysis on the factor of insurance demand, there are many scholars who have already explored this issue. In china, Most of the scholars merely practiced the OLS to regress and predict the future variance basing on the historic data, which frequently ignores the process of testing the stationary of data. In 1974, Granger presented to the theory of spurious regression in the first time, disclosing the function of destroy on the validity that the non-balanced time series to the classical econometrics. Then, the fact that ADF and co- integration were presented made the theoretical foundation on the study of non-stationary time series data.This thesis puts to use the actual data between 1980 and 2006.In the first step it utilizes the ADF to test the stationary on the sample data. Then it establishes the VAR model among the variances of gross premium, GDP, interest rate and CPI. Finally it researches the dynamic relationship which uses co-integration analysis and Granger cause-result relationship test.