Beihai Coastal Storm Surge Analysis And Forecasting Method Of Characteristics

Beihai City is a coastal tourist city, which is located in the southern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, northeastern coast of the northern Gulf, and Hainan Island across the sea, near the Southeast Asian countries, north of the southwest, facing Southeast Asia, is a rare natural harbor. In recent years, with the country's western development and the economic development of the northern Gulf, Beihai City to become an important place for foreign trade, the tourism industry, the gradual social and economic prosperity. However, the North Sea coastal city of China's tropical cyclone activity is more frequent one of the regions, each of the North Sea storm surge disasters caused economic losses city was an increasing trend, which has seriously hampered economic development and opening of Beihai City. Therefore, the master to understand the coastal storm surge of Beihai City characteristics and accurate prediction of storm surge, which the local government has a very important command wind and moisture making reference value, but also to the western development, opening up strategic and minority unity, social stability, a major event, but also have far-reaching theoretical and practical significance.Based on the 1965-2009 years of Beihai coastal city of tropical cyclone storm surge information and data for statistical analysis of Beihai coastal city storm surge characteristics of the coastal city. The results showed that: the average annual the Beihai coast storm surge occurs 2-3 times more than the strength of the larger storm surge of 0.87 times per year, more than the strength of a serious storm surge once every 3 years;The Beihai coastal city of year April to November are likely to occur storm surge, and concentrated in 7-10 months, especially in September most of Beihai City, which is the monthly distribution of tropical cyclones along the coast line. Among them, the general level and above storm surge most frequent from July to October, and over a larger degree of storm surge occurred in the 7-8 month up to and above the level of serious and storm surge only in July the most frequent and serious storm surge had not occurred; impact of tropical cyclones in the North Sea coast of the main city of the northwest line of the path-based, and mostly through the Leizhou Peninsula or along the coast of Hainan Island after landing in Vietnam, such a case, the storm surge curve showed cyclical fluctuations; addition, this paper uses Pearson-Ⅲdistribution and the Gumbel distribution to estimate the frequency of storm surge, come to the North Sea coast city of different return periods of high water value.Finally, under the 1965-2008 total of 77 tropical cyclones in the process of increasing the maximum storm surge of water data, the use of "Jay's" Statistics related to storm surge forecasting and numerical weather prediction and other reported results of two methods of study after study show that: " Jay's "The calculation and prediction method of typhoon left the best fit the measured values, however, when the measured value≦ 70cm, its calculated value is greater than the measured value of the typhoon left, when the measured value> 70cm, its calculation the measured value is less than the value of the typhoon left, showing regular changes of the reasons for this may be related to "Jay's" storm surge statistics related to the theoretical basis for prediction method has a relationship; numerical prediction method of typhoon left the calculated and measured values fit best, but, regardless of the typhoon left (measured value> 70cm) or Road typhoon, the calculated values of numerical prediction method are smaller than the measured value, while the other two did not show regular changes of typhoon, showing that regular changes reason may be calculated with the numerical prediction method has a relationship size of the region; the results of two test prediction methods, produce the "Jay's" Statistics related to storm surge forecasting better forecasting methods, and the relative error of the minimum number of occurrences of the total 61.0% The numerical method is relatively low minimum error occurrences, 39.0%, forecast less effective; both absolute error, or the proportion of the total, begin with "Jay's" Statistics related to storm surge forecasting method is the highest; two methods Three types of tropical cyclones reported results after the test, obtained either on the right typhoon, Typhoon Road, left Typhoon (measured value≦ 70cm) or left Typhoon (measured value> 70cm) the largest increase in water storm surge forecast, "Jay s "statistical correlation forecast storm surge results are the best method, especially for the typhoon left (measured value≦ 70cm) of storm surge forecasts.