Ground Movement And Deformation Of Dynamic Prediction Under The Conditions Of Thick Soil Layer

Dynamic prediction of ground movement and deformation is one of the core subjects on mine ground movement and deformation. For the ground movement and deformation caused by the process of coal mining, this paper deal dynamic prediction of the ground observation stations' movement and deformation data through the establishment of the Kalman filtering model, gray GM (1,1) model and time series model.Kalman filtering, gray system and time-series is a kind of an effective method on dynamic system data processing. This paper uses these three theories for dynamic prediction in the process of ground movement and deformation. Through the establishment of mine Kalman filtering model, gray GM (1,1) model and time series model, we can do dynamically prediction on the state of ground mobile stations. Ground movement due to coal mining is a complex dynamic process, so this paper through a standard Kalman filtering, adaptive Kalman filtering, gray system and the time series do dynamic prediction. using these four algorithms dynamic ground movement and deformation prediction, good results were achieved through the analysis and comparison The standard Kalman filtering and adaptive Kalman filtering algorithms for two kinds of stations affected by coal mining impact is small through the view of the entire structure, the better forecast performing.But when the mutation occurs the state of observation stations forecast will be a large deviation; gray GM (1,1) model to forecast short period effects better, but the forecast for a medium and long less effective, Therefore, different scenarios to choose different prediction models are necessary.This paper synthetically analyzes the effects of the geological and mining conditions which include unconsolidated layers and faults on ground movement and deformation according to observed data in various periods to dynamically predict observation stations on the latter part of the state and to draw deformation curve. Further discloses dynamically deformation regularity of ground migrating caused by mining under the geological and mining conditions of this mine.In the dynamic forecasts theory of the ground movement and deformation, through test of forecasting and the results of analysis and comparison of the measured value, and also use the object-oriented programming language VB6.0 as a tool to develop the software on "the dynamic warning system of ground movement and deformation".Figure [32] table [15] reference [62]...