Human-Land Relationship Coupling And Modeling In Ebinur Lake Basin

Coupled human and natural system in Ebinur lake basin is anature-economy-society complex giant system which is in the context of arid regions,and also is a complex coupled systems which has multilayer, multivariable, coordinatedwith time and space based on basin. In this article, we combinated ecology, systematicscience and theory, related methods and theory to identify the mechanism and laws ofcoupled human and natural system in Ebinur lake basin through method combinatedwith practical investigation and theory information justification. We used systemanalysis, statistical analysis and evaluation methods to investigate and evaluate thecoupled evolution, process and coupled situation of coupled human and natural systemin Ebinur lake basin; We established three scene simulation model through somemethods, such as historical data fitting, grey prediction theory and method and systemsdynamics modeling. In order to provide scientific decision making basis and support foroptimal regulation and sustainable development of sustainable development of coupledhuman and natural system in Ebinur lake basin. The prime results are as follows:(1) Identified the coupled mechanism and prime process of coupled human andnatural system in Ebinur lake basin through reading the literature related theoreticalresearch by both Chinese and foreign researchers consulting the historical informationof Ebinur lake basin, and then we considered system theory and local actual situation toestablished coupled causal feedback loop of coupled human and natural system inEbinur lake basin.(2) After investigating and evaluating the coupled evolution, process and coupledsituation of coupled human and natural system in the Ebinur lake basin, we found that:economy and society in Ebinur lake basin has steadily increased since1990, while withthat, ecological environment carrying pressure increased and degree of human systemcoupled sharp increased, and contradiction between human and nature were fierce;After1994, Ebinur lake basin was overexploited, economic and social developments are limited by limitations and negative effects of resource and environment, mainly ofwhich are resource shortage and aggravate pollution.(3) Rapid economical evolution model results showed that: under the current ratesof economic and social development, the gross domestic product (GDP) in Ebinur lakebasin in2022would be640.2billion, about four times of present one, and total waterconsumption would be5.73billion, about19times of present situation; after2019, totalwater consumption in the Ebinur lake basin would exceed the available water in theEbinur lake basin, and the ratio of water deficiency was0.3%in2019, and39.52%in2022; Waste gas accumulation of basin would be4.954×103billion m3, waste wateraccumulation would be1.95×10~7t, and solid waste accumulation would be1.71×10~6tin2022.(4) Simulation results of ecological environment pressure model showed that,increased carrying pressure on water resources mainly result from cultivated land,economy and population growth, the increscent cultivated land was the most importantinfluence fact, and the cultivated land water irrigation quota in Ebinur lake basincomprehensive values were up to5,850cubic/hectare; the ideal population control inEbinur lake basin was that urban and rural population growth rate should maintainbelow the0.00592and0.00356, respectively.(5) Efficient use situation of water resources simulation results showed that, totalwater use efficiency was64.02yuan/t in2012, and industrial water use efficiency was328.86yuan/t; total water use efficiency would be888.15yuan/t in2022, and industrialwater use efficiency would be3958.46yuan/t, and the total water resources utilizationefficiency be1483.14yuan/t, taking the water resource investment into account, thewater use efficiency would increase, and the increased industrial water saving rate andindustrial water reuse rate were most important way to achieve water resources efficientuse; when adjust planting structure in Ebinur Lake basin, water resources use efficiencyof farm production was highest after increasing the area of cultivating the cotton, and the water efficiency was about2.4812yuan/m3. In addition, improve industrial andagricultural investment and sustained economic growth could achieve the goal ofeffective utilization water resources.