Study Of Sharing Rate Model Between Two Rapid Passenger Transport Modes Of Highway And Railway

High-speed railway (HSR) in China has developed rapidly in recent years, which causes great impact on traditional passenger transport modes. High-speed bus (HSB) is one of the land rapid transport modes, having a great market share because of its speed, convenience and frequent shifts.After the introduction of HSR, part of the original HSB passengers transferred to the HSR, but after the transfer, the passenger flow is basically stable within certain distance. Currently, most research focused on the coordination between road and rail, and HSR, the study of competition between HSR and HSB is relatively not that much. This study focuses on the rapid passenger transport system, and builds a diversion model between two fast transport modes-HSB&HSR. The following parts explain the details:First, this study analyzes the factors that influence the choice behavior of the travelers from three parts i.e. travelers'characteristics, travel demand and characteristics of alternatives. The economy and the location within the region are also analyzed from a macro point of view. And based on this analysis, a factor analysis based sharing model is established. As there are many qualitative variables in the sharing model, three methods to quantify them are proposed: Indicators (dummy variables), scores of ordered qualitative, and weight coefficient.Flowingly, this paper discusses the building method of sharing model of HSR and HSB based on mutual OD pairs. First, it analyzes the necessity of data validation and expansion. And it provides the method to get engineering data. Then with time and cost differences as the visible parts of utility function, an Excel VBA based program is developed to estimate the parameters of Mutual OD pairs based model.This paper applies both models to Yongtaiwen corridor. The result of the application of model based on factor analysis indicates that the access time, monthly income, career and ticket fare as the main factors that affect the sharing rate of HSR, which also proves travel frequency has no effect on the sharing rate as well as the validity of the methods to quantize the qualitative variables; While the application of mutual OD pairs based model identifies the suitable travel distance scope of HSR and HSB. It concludes that 150km as division, i.e. if the distance is less than 150km, HSB proves a good passenger transport mode, while of the distance more than 150km, HSR is a good choice for the passengers. This conclusion is in line with the research of experts, which uses 200km as a division. And moreover the result of mutual OD pairs model test the result of calculation example of the factor analysis based model.Finally, based on the application of both models and the research analysis, some suggestions are made to encourage the development of HSB.