Application Of Monte Carlo Method In Loss Allocation

With the gradual reformation of power market, all participants in power market can use the transmission equally and non-discriminatorily. Transmission loss allocation not only influences the economic benefits of every user, but also has important functions to guide the users using transmission rationally. As a result, the problem of transmission loss allocation has become one of the most important basic theory of power market. Many researchers around the world are paying attention to this problem.The principle of the current methods of transmission loss allocation is introduced and their advantages and defects is analyzed in this paper. Some familiar loss allocation algorithms such as pro rata techniques, marginal loss coefficient, load flow tracing method and loss allocation based on Cooperation Game Theory are introduced particularly.In the actual production, transmission loss in the specific time period is allocated. The usual practice is that the transmission loss allocation in designated the micro-time period is calculated, electric quantity of allocation is calculated through that losing power is multiplied by duration of the power in the typical operating mode, and then that the electric quantity in the period is accumulated is the final result of loss allocation. This approach is more accurate, but the quantity of calculation is great and the calculating time is long when transmission losses is allocated in the micro-time period of every operating mode.Monte Carlo is a method that approximately solves mathematic or physical problems by statistical sampling theory. When allocated electric quantity of the load in the period is calculated, the load data of every period which is measured is for mathematical statistics and the probability distribution model of the load is constructed. Then power data measured of the load is sampled according to the probability distribution of load. The loss power is calculated using some method of loss allocation, and then the allocated electric quantity of the load is obtained by accumulating the power. So within a certain range of error, the quantity of calculation is reduced and the efficiency of calculation is improved. The result of simulation of the 9 bus experiment system is verified that the method proposed in the paper is practicable, reasonable and correctable.The method is further improved in the paper, the loss allocation power of each load is calculated and the average of the power is obtained according to the samples of the load. Then the average ratio of loss allocation in the period is obtained. The product of the ratio and the electric quantity of the loss in the period is the electric quantity of loss allocation.