Reliability Evaluation Of Distribution Systems Considering Uncertainty

At present request to reliability of distribution network is getting higher along with the development of social economy, the distribution system that linked with the customer directly, is the biggest influencing factor to power supply reliability of customer. Therefore the reliability evaluation of distribution system has vital significance to raise reliability level of distribution system.The data and the material needed in the reliability evaluation of distribution network have uncertainty; this is an objective existence fact. If continue to use the definite traditional reliability evaluation method without processing, it definitely would cause big difference between the analysis computation result and the actual situation. Therefore this paper has studied the reliability evaluation of distribution network considering uncertainty, made the reliability evaluation more tally with the reality.First, this paper carried on the analysis to the traditional reliability evaluation methods of distribution network, studied its existing question; applied the blind number theory to process the uncertainty information in the reliability evaluation of distribution network, then solved the blind number form of reliability index. Compared with the traditional reliability evaluation method, the reliability evaluation method of distribution network based on the blind number, could solve and process uncertainty information in the reliability evaluation of distribution network (fuzziness, grey, unascertained and so on) well, could reflect the effect of uncertainty information to reliability index, reflect the changes of index and the possible distributed situation. And through makes average value processing to the blind number form of reliability index, thus may obtain the mean value of the reliability index considering uncertainty factor, so the result is more suitable for the actual situation.Then, took the effect of weather factor and operation years to component reliability parameter into account, deduced component reliability parameter modification of distribution system, then carried on the distribution network reliability evaluation using Bayesian networks, obtained reliability index considering the weather factor and the operation years. The reliability evaluation of distribution network using the modified component reliability parameter could obtain reliability index under the different weather condition and the different period of operation.