System Design Technique Of Tactical Missiles Based On Probabilistic Deviations

Deviation factors are accounted for in the system design of tactical missiles in this paper. The sources of deviations are analyzed and modeling method and appropriate sampling techniques are proposed. For a special scenario, giving military and technical constraints, a missile's anti-airplane system model is established and deviations are coupled into this model. Then, trajectory characteristics of the missile are simulated. Based on these work, the system design scheme is optimized, in the objective of the combination of precision, cost and time, by performing a probabilistic uncertain optimization process. Post-optimization analysis is performed afterwards and sensitivity derivatives as well as design balance are calculated.In the first place, the sources and common models of deviations in engineering are summarized in order to establish an overall modeling process. Model for small samples is a key technology and by combining Bayes theory and theories of mathematical statistics, the overall modeling process is presented. This process can be instantiated by some examples in the paper.Next, aiming at a special mission scenario in which an anti-airplane missile is supposed to destroy an assaulting target, military and technical constraints are given, deviations are coupled into the trajectory model and sampling techniques are presented, especially for small sample case. By sampling, a feasible trajectory is obtained using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and its statistical character is analyzed.Then, based on the established deviational trajectory model and constraints, cost and time factors as well as the precision are considered as the optimization objective by analyzing the relation between cost, time and data volume of missile experiments. An optimum design scheme is obtained by performing a probabilistic uncertain optimization process. Computational complexity is calculated, as well as the relation between the simulation times and reliability of design results.Finally, a post-optimization process is performed, including sensitivities of the optimum scheme with respect to optimum design points and constraints, sensitivities of the optimum design points with respect to fixed parameters and constraints and consequences of destroy of constraints. Advice on how to control design variables and constraints are listed.This paper introduces deviations into the missile system design, which is closer to the actual case where there is much uncertainty in the missile designs. And by analyzing the sources of deviations and data acquirements of missile experiments, cost and time factors are incorporated into the design objective, avoiding the usual case where only technical objectives are considered, which makes the design more applicable. Bayes theory and classical statistical methods are combined to establish the deviation model and appropriate sampling methods are presented, enhancing the reliability of simulations. Although the obtained optimum scheme is aimed at a special scenario, it can also provide reference for further study.