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The Influence Of The International Hot Money On The Stock Market Of China Impact Analys's

Posted on:2012-12-21Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:S S WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2219330338454430Subject:Investment economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
International hot money is a double-edged sword, in our daily cognitive,international hot money does have some pejorative, it is often found in a national or regional exchange rate stability problems, the interest rate adjustment mechanism of the defect problem, and large inflows to the region capital market, mainly into the inter-bank system, the stock market and property market. Because of high international capital mobility and profit-driven nature of these two will quickly push asset prices in a region, resulting in a large number of bubbles. The current focus of international hot money will often target areas under the emerging countries, as faster economic growth in emerging countries, financial sector liberalization and the gradual currency appreciation against the dollar always. With international capital in the lucrative field in the incident by the external effects (such as a regional unrest, have sought a strong dollar hedge), or the local economy has improved and emerging countries the situation of economic slowdown, the withdrawal of international hot money will have areas of emerging countries. Once the withdrawal of international capital, the gradual economic bubble will burst, causing great harm to the economy. However, there is an upside of international hot money, it can bring a nation to alleviate the shortage of state funds, such as lubricants, as capital of the country to be fully mobile, and promote economic development.This article focuses on the international hot money into China, with its stock market as an example to illustrate the impact of international hot money on the Empirical Analysis of the Chinese economy. This article is divided into four parts, the first reasonable calculation of how the international hot money, the paper from the new foreign exchange reserves, trade surplus, foreign direct investment and international capital income in the investment market to a reasonable estimate for the four angles the overall size of international hot money. Discovered through the rational calculation of international hot money began in 2005, mainly from large-scale flow into China peaked in 2007, reaching 552.5 billion U.S. dollars. Then the stock market as an example of the impact of international hot money on the market, respectively, from the price-earnings ratio, stock turnover rates and other indicators of shows from 2005 until the end of 2007, the rapid inflow of international hot money has pushed up the stock market bubble, In 2008, after the withdrawal of international hot money has exacerbated the stock market bubble burst in the process. Then, empirical analysis, the scale of international hot money inflows and the stock market bubble in China has a significant positive correlation. Finally, from the legal, administrative, economic, and strengthening international cooperation to consider the four point clear to the international hot money management measures. Legal measures from the tax, foreign exchange management, banking, Customs Management Act and regulations to improve the four; administrative measures to contain the major source of international hot money in the entry, and prevent large-scale withdrawal of international hot money; economic measures primarily the elimination of international hot money arbitrage is expected; international organizations is on the IMF, the World Trade Organization, regulatory cooperation between national and regional.
Keywords/Search Tags:International floating capital, Stock market froth, Regression analysis
PDF Full Text Request
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