The Effects Of International Energy Price Fluctuations On Chinese Economy

Energy is the fundamental material for the sustainable economic development. With the rapid economic growth rate, energy demand in China continues to increase. However, the natural energy endowment in China is "ample coal, poor oil and rare gas", which leads to the situation that the domestic energy yielding structure seriously does not match the domestic energy demand. Thus, in order to keep the economic growth rate, China has no way than to depend on energy import to fetch up the gap between domestic energy supply and demand. Therefore, energy external dependence degree increasingly climbs up. Especially, the oil external dependence degree is 51.17%, which is 1.17 percent beyond the alarm level. With the deeper interaction with world energy market, the world energy price fluctuation has no doubt impact on the Chinese economic operation. The research on how the world energy price fluctuation effect the Chinese economic operation is meaningful. To study how the world energy price fluctuation effects the Chinese economic operation and to what extent, this paper set up a CGE model including 42 product sectors.Chapter 1 mainly discussed the background of the question promoted in the paper and the modeling method used in the paper. Chapter2 analyzed domestic energy yielding structure and domestic energy demand structure. The world oil price serials and coal price serials are also discussed by Econometrics methods in Chapter2. Chapter3 described the process of building the CGE model. Chapter4 simulated several price impulses in order to study the effect.