Study On The Effect Of Internal Energy Relative Price On China’s Total Carbon Emission

The contradiction between economy and environment in China has been increasingly highlighted with the fast development of industrialization and urbanization. The sharply growth of China’s total carbon emissions made China have to face the dual pressures of domestic worse ecological environment and foreign worse bargaining environment. Carbon emissions is in essence energy consumption problem. Causing of the factors affecting carbon emissions are affected by the allocation of market-remains, the “carbon suppression” need a boost from energy price in China. While the energy relative price not only can reflect supply and demand and the scarcity based on energy market better, but also can measure energy price changes at the price level in the economic system. Therefore, this paper started from the energy relative price, on the premise of analysis of theoretical relationship between energy price and carbon emissions, using of various statistical methods to analyze the comprehensive effect of energy relative price on carbon emissions in system.Specifically, firstly, the method of literature analysis was used to define and measure the energy relative price and total carbon emissions in China, and the method of descriptive statistical analysis was used to analyze their changes and characteristics. Secondly, the empirical methods were used to analyze the direct and indirect relationship between energy relative price and total carbon emissions. The general correlation between energy price and total carbon emissions was analyzed by the methods of grey correlation measurement, cointegration test and Granger causality test. The methods of least squares regression and ridge regression were used to analyze the direct and indirect effect of energy relative price on total carbon emissions. On this basis, the simultaneous equations model was set to study the effect of energy relative price on total carbon emissions in the interaction system, and the method of three stage least squares was used to estimate the coefficients in simultaneous equation model. The method of panel data regression was used to analyze the direct and indirect effects of energy relative price on different industrial carbon emissions comparatively.The conclusions were as followed: firstly, Chinese total carbon emissions showed a rising trend, the carbon emissions structure is still dominated from coal. The industry is the main department of carbon emissions, there is a stark difference of carbon emissions among different industries, department of emissions is relative concentrated. Secondly, there is moderate correlation, long-term relationship and significant lagging causal relationship between energy relative price and total carbon emissions. The direct negative effect of improving energy relative price on total carbon emissions is not significant, the indirect effect of energy relative price via energy efficiency on total carbon emissions are sterilized by other factors. From the perspective of regulation system, energy relative price changes with the reasonable changes of industrial structure and energy efficiency, and enlarges the effect of structure and technology on energy conservation and emissions reduction. However, the regulation effect is limited, the leverage of price has yet to play. Thirdly, even though price only has significant direct impact on three individual industries’ total carbon emissions, the negative effect on carbon emissions of industries’ energy efficiency has been increased generally when considering price regulation, and the coordinated development of economic growth and emission reduction has been realized in some industries accordingly. However, the positive effect on carbon emissions of industrial production under the price regulation is different among 35 industries.Nowadays, the internal energy price requires more and more attention, the mechanisms of energy pricing and price should be improved further on the basis of a reasonable level of inflation. At the same time, it should be avoided starting the energy saving and emission reduction with a single means. The energy saving and emission reduction policy needs to consider a comprehensive regulation of multi-channels, keep adjusting industrial structure as much as promoting industrial development, proceed energy price reform, structural adjustment and technological progress.