Actuarial Analysis Of The Rural Pension System's Fund Balance Under Stochastic Interest Rates

With enhanced aging of China's agricultural population, the problem of rural endowment insurance has become more and more outstanding; it is both significant and very urgent to develop rural society endowment insurance system. The establishment of rural society endowment insurance is one of the most important guarantees and plays an important role in the process of completely constructing well-to-do society. But the key factor of rural society endowment insurance system implementation is the sustainability of that system. Therefore, it is very important and significant to develop further the system through the analysis about the balance of rural social endowment insurance fund.Based on the theory of fund balance risk at home and abroad, this paper builds up actuarial models of the new rural society endowment insurance system, and put application into the Chengdu case. First, establish the dynamic models of rural population mortality prediction; then, establish the rural population models of prediction in Chengdu, and obtain the rural population data joining the rural society pension insurance; finally, with the actuarial models, using population and mortality data, predict fund balance in 50 years and give some suggestions. Through the researches, this article draws some conclusions as follows:(1) There is short of individual account fund.(2) During 2009 and 2033, the social pooling account's solvency is sufficient, after that, the gap appears.Based on the preceding analysis, some suggestions are put forward in order to ensure the stable application of new rural society pension insurance:(1) Establishing the financial burden mechanism.(2) Establishing the elastic retirement system.(3) Strengthening the management of maintenance and appreciation of the pension fund.