Research On The Actuarial Model Of The Contribution Rate Of The New Rural Social Pension Insurance With The Stochastic Interest Rate

With the development of economy, the life expectancy of population has extended, the phenomenon of aging increasingly prominent,and the pension issues has became the core concern of the world. Under the background of global aging, combined with the national conditions and the policy of China, the paper studied the contribution rate of new rural social pension insurance with the stochastic interest rate, the specific work as follows:Firstly, based on the fixed interest rate, the paper established the accumulated actuarial model of individual account of the new rural pension insurance. Then analyze several factors which affect the accumulated actuarial model, the article derived that the accumulated actuarial model of individual account has relation with the age that people join the insurance,the standard of the pay cost, the interest rate, and significantly affected by the interest rate.Secondly, according to introducing the stochastic interest rate, the thesis built the accumulated actuarial model of individual account of the new rural pension insurance with the stochastic interest rate. The specific modeling process is: assumed the interest rate is subject to the Vasicek interest rate model, select the inter-bank seven-days repo rate is the most empirical interest rate with the relativity principle and the principle of transaction. Then using this data, the paper estimated the parameters of the Vasicek interest rate model according to combining the generalized moment estimation method with Eviews7 software. In the end, performing Monte Carlo simulation through numerical examples, uniting MATLAB software simulate diagram of probability distribution of the accumulated actuarial model of individual account, the thesis calculated the expected value of the accumulated amounts of the pension in the individual account.Thirdly, the paper established the ELES model and ARMA model to predict the consumption structure and consumption level of rural residents based on the data of the average annual income, medical treatment, basic living consumption and major consumption of the rural residents which from 1985 to 2014, the paper predict the basic living consumption level of rural residents.Finally, according to the definition of the contribution rate of new rural social pension insurance, estimated the contribution rate of the insured person who has different insured ages,the paper prove that the contribution rate of new rural social pension insurance is proportional to the insured time, inversely proportional to the payment period, and the new rural social pension insurance can not fully ensure the basic living standard of all insured people. Then based on the level of the contribution rate and the results of the sensitivity analysis,the thesis put forward the corresponding proposal, to ensure the new rural social pension insurance achieve the goal of “ ensuring basic".