The Research On Information Transmission Of International Dry Bulk FFA Market

Information transmission is that in the two or more connected organizations, one's changes are able to transfer to the other one through all kinds of ways and result in the change, when the new change also could have an effect on the original one, we call it two-way information transmission; when the latter effect does not exist, we call it one-way information transmission. In the condition of globalization and Financial integration, with the development of international trade and finance, the rate of returns and fluctuation of Shipping market not only affected by last value of itself ,but also affected by factors in other markets,this phenomenon is called informational transmission effect.In the International shipping market, ours need to transportation capacity is increasing with the development of national economics ,yet the part of self satisfaction is very small, the rest must be bought from international shipping market, as a result, severe price volatility in the market will have serious effect on our national economics. on the present market, enterprises buy stock from the shipping market ignoring the forward market, yet forward market volatility is the expectation to the spot market volatility in the future, after careful analysis, enterprises can forecast future's change in the spot market.to our enterprises, they can make full use of this phenomenon in the forward market to decrease the risk in the spot market.The article have a study on the volatility spillover between forward market and spot market within routes with qualitative and quantitative methods: the qualitative methods are granger test and Impulse response; the quantitative methods are hamao and EGARCH models, in which we use A market'mean error as a variables of B variance equation to have a inspectation of the volatility spillover between spot and forward market. Through the combination use of qualitative and quantitative models, we can have a good description of the information volatility between spot and forward marketThe routes we study mainly are C3 C5 C4 C4TC, the former two are related to our country closely, the rest are connected with the Europe closely. the time is from 2006 to the end of 2010.the article have a study on the information transmission effect between forward market and spot market of four routes firstly, in which the result of c4 is better than c3 and c5.then divide the data from 2008 finance crisis, the article have a segmentation research, finding that the volatility spillover effect have improved after the international financial crisis in c3 and c5.After the research on information transmission between spot market and forward market in routes, we can find the influence between spot market and forward market in c3 and c5 more clearly, which lay the foundation for the future'forecasting the spot market's volatility trend,risk management and hedging.