The Labor Demand Analysis And Forecast Of The Three Industries In Chengdu

There are many factors that affect the employment, such as the increment of economics,the increasing population, resources, technology, environment and so on. However, the main one is still the increment of economics, including its speed and structure. The government has released many measures to promote the economics and increase employment, but the resources and total economy output are limited, so the effect of the speed of economic on employment has been smaller. The structure of economy is the decisive factor and has an important effect on employment. Moreover, the industrial structure is the main form of economic structure. Thus, it is necessary to master the change trend of the industrial structure and research about its effects on employment. Then we can use the economic policies to adjust the industrial structure and improve the employment level of the whole society to promote the full employment.The paper takes the city of Chengdu for example. On the basis of studying and analyzing the research on the employment structure at home and abroad, and after forecasting the employment structure and analyzing the relationship between labor demand and three industries including their intenal industries, the thesis proposes some strategies for the employment, which will be of great value for the similar regions about employment. The research contains two main aspects:analyzing the current employment structure and forecasting it by compositional data method, analyzing the relationship between labor demand and three industries including their intenal industries by grey relational analysis method.As for the problems of the situation of three industries'employment structure and its prediction. Firstly, the thesis analyzes the current situation of three industries'employment structure by elastic analysis and deviation analysis. On the basis of that, the paper constructs the compositional data models of the three industries'employment structure and industrial structure and gives forecast analysis of the next five years. Through the prediction, we can draw the following conclusion:After the reform and openness, the structure of primary industry in Chengdu has great deviation and shows an increasing trend. The employment deviation of the secondary industry is somewhat large and has great potential to absorb labor. The employment deviation of the third industry is small, However, a long way behind the developed countries. Its advantages in absorbing labor haven't been brought into full play. In the next five years,the development trend of the secondary and third industries is very strong in Chengdu. But it does not totally conform with the law of the modern industry development.On the analysis of labor demand, the paper studies the relationship between labor demand and three industries including their intenal industries by grey relational analysis method. The result shows that the secondary industry has the greatest contribution to the employment, the next is the third industry in which internal tenancy, commercial service, public management, social organization industry, real estate business have a stronger relationship with labor demand.