The Research On Evaluation Of Oasis Agriculture Development Stability In Xinjiang

Oasis agriculture as the foundation of economic development in Xinjiang, it is most important to keep the stability of the agriculture. But the rapid expansion of the population and the rapid development of economic factors inspire various contradictions between human beings and nature. These contradictions give a huge challenge to the steady development of oasis agriculture. It is the most difficult to deal with the relation among the human beings, economy and environment. It is the most difficult to find out the influence factors restricting development and stability of agriculture. It is the most difficult to explore a way that accord with the sustainable development of Xinjiang agricultural. The paper is discussing about these questions and gives some advices.The first part of this paper introduces the background and the purport of the research, gives an integrated discussion about the research status at home and abroad and illuminates methods of the study.The second part of the paper elaborates the theories about agricultural development in order to support the academic research continuously.The third part of article describes the status in quo of Oasis agriculture development and industrial regional differentiation in Xinjiang. Through the method of descriptive statistics, we draw a conclusion that agricultural production improves significantly, relying on the unique geographical environment and predominant resources. But due to the geographical area difference and unreasonable distribution resources, there is having large differentiation in levels of agricultural development among the assemblies in Xinjiang.The forth part of thesis researches the state of Oasis agriculture and analyses the restraining factors. Combined with the characteristics of oasis agriculture development, the paper demonstrates it from two scales about time and space. Firstly, in time scales, establishes the time series from 1985 to 2008 about the oasis agriculture and adopt the fuzzy mathematics to evaluate the stability. The conclusions indicate that The overall stability of development of oasis agriculture in Xinjiang is increased year by year. It was having been in the weak stability from the 1980s to the mid of 1990s. It is having been in the moderate stable stage from the mid of 1990s to today. Secondly, in space scales, use the principal component method to analysis agricultural stability differences. The most stable region is Kelamayi and the worst is Hetian. The development ability of the agriculture in north Xinjiang is higher than the southern. Finally, use the factor analysis to research the impact-factor, we draw the conclusion that the more great influence factors are economic strength, ecological environment and social coordination degree.The fifth part of paper combines empirical analysis conclusion and give some advices, such as changing concept, adjusting agricultural structure, improving agricultural external environment, developing the water-saving agriculture, improving agriculture yield ability and soil quality.