Study On The Fluctuation Of Pig Production And Stable Growth Countermeasure In Hunan

Pig is one of the important part in people's livelihood, it also is "vegetable basket" project of the important part. All along, the Hunan province of China pig, the pig slaughter volume, breeding stock and pork production has been the country in the forefront.2009 output value of total agricultural output value of pigs in our province, 27%, accounting for 70% of the total output value of animal husbandry. Therefore, the pig industry, which directly affects the development of the livestock and the whole agricultural economic development and stability is the basis for the overall stability of national food. With the continuous economic and social development and people's rising income levels, consumption of pork has become the main meat. Therefore, the pig production is not only the operation of the entire national economy, but also to the vital interests of the consumers. But how to further strengthen our province pig output volatility understanding of the law, and make timely and effective monitoring of pig production cycle fluctuations, to better grasp the rules of Feng promoting the stable development of pig production, and adjusting the internal structure of agriculture in our province layout, are of great significant role.This paper output from pigs in Hunan nearly three decades of historical data, mainly with the economic cycle theory approach to the analysis of relevant content to study in Hunan pigs three years history of the evolution of output volatility, our province pig production system analysis a state of cyclical fluctuations, fluctuation characteristics and the specific reasons for each cycle fluctuations, and on the basis of students inside and outside of hog production factors, and then in the comprehensive survey of history and reality factors in the pigs on the basis of research, The basic structure of paper as follows:The first chapter is the introduction, the research background, purpose, current status and introduction to research methods.The second chapter describes the theoretical part, focuses on business cycle theory, the cobweb model theory and the theory of market failure.The third chapter Hunan to inspect pig production, to explore the development of the pig industry in Hunan strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and challenges.The fourth chapter analysis the periodic fluctuations in Hunan province and analysis of pig production, the pig production of cycles the used H-Pfilter method by the system..The fifth chapter of the province's internal and external raw pig output volatility factors, the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, mainly using the following method:c-d production function model, cointegration error correction model, impulse response functions and other analysis methods.The six chapter based on the chapter presented to promoting the steady growth of pigs countermeasures summarizes the conclusions of the above analysis.