Study On Chongqing Office Building Cycle Fluctuations

The real estate industry is very important in the development of the nationaleconomy, however, the real estate is always in fluctuation, not only alternating hot andcold throughout the real estate market, but real estate property types showed unevendevelopment of their development, even interfere with each other. In this paper, thestudy of Chongqing office market cycle fluctuation, first to enrich the theoretical studyof the fluctuations in the real estate, secondly to provide a reference for the formulationof macro-control policies.In this paper, the definition of office building cycle fluctuations and its cycle isanalysed. We selected four direct indicators of the office market characteristics: officeinvestment to complete, the amount of new construction area, sales area and the averageselling price. Collecting the data of the1999-2010Chongqing indicators, using thetiming global principal component analysis method to analyze the Composite Indexoffice market cycle fluctuations and cyclical fluctuations in timing diagram, the resultsshow that: the office market exists obvious cyclical fluctuations, and it fell into a troughtwice, respectively in2006and in2008, Before2006, the office market had longerwavelength, higher volatility, and since2006, the fluctuations is more moderate. Thenoffice influencing factors were classified, and described the fluctuations in theconduction mechanism, and then by a combination of qualitative analysis andquantitative description of the methods to identify the factors that most affect the officemarket fluctuations, is tertiary industry GDP.Secondly interaction studies forresidential, commercial business space and office market, where residential sales areaand the average price of office influenced but the commercial space business has nosignificant effect on the office building, on the contrary, office market indicators have agreater impact on the sales area and sales price of the commercial space business.Finally, the full text is summarized and put forward related proposals.