Empirical Analysis Of Corporate Financial Early Warning System Method

Enterprise development is like the baby's growth process is same, it is a long and complicated process. In the modern enterprise management, management risk and financial risk to enterprise's growth has great impact, even sometimes they will become virus, erosion enterprise health until bankruptcy. However, this situation is not achieved overnight, before that it has a very long period of hidden period. Timely medical examination, became an important link in the modern enterprise management, risk control.Measure companies credit risk, in many ways. From quantitative point of view, basically have single variable model and multiariable models. Among them, the multiariable models relatively complex and important. From his early Z index model to the traditional credit risk metric mathematical logic, and then to modern credit risk evaluation model, such as KMV and credit measure art model. Foreign demand for this part of the research history longer, and have a perfect the empirical theory. Domestic to this part of the study also have a period of time, but from our country enterprise history shorter, empirical aspects need to improve. Especially for those who has not yet listed the risk of small and medium-sized enterprises is still debating how to measure.This paper mainly studies and solution to small and medium enterprises how the financial information for measurements of credit risk. Study found that modern credit risk evaluation model and the traditional credit risk evaluation model for China's small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk are very good measure ability. Modern credit risk metric model suitable for our country the KMV model which puts the rating situation, can work out financial information revealed by credit risk value. Using EXCELL software, to small and medium-sized enterprises of unlisted modern credit risk measurement, can get credit risk an intuitive performance.Traditional credit risk evaluation model for China's small and medium-sized enterprise risk have very good discrimination ability, special according to the discriminant analysis and cluster analysis thought the model can get very significant results. In the analysis process, with the aid of traditional mathematics software MATLAB, the risk metric model is established. The ideas of the empirical part is the first building the database, a clustering analysis for different distances in the ideological characteristics of financial data definition extraction, and that the two big classification (ST enterprises and the ST enterprise). Finally, in the criteria for the classification of that establish the discriminant function, chooses is discrimination results linear discriminative analysis. Empirical part adopts mathematical technique is mathematical modeling theory, is divided into:model preparation, model, model and the model is validated.Paper is the innovative point into sophisticated mathematical formulas and mathematical models, make it become the common rating personnel can in daily work using credit risk metric method.