| The lesson we got from the US financial turmoil is still fresh although it's gradually passing away. There were a great number of corporates failed for cash flow shortages, including a couple of respected enterprises. It's not hard to find out that the pursuit of cash flow value without concerning the risks associated with actually caused their failure. A coin has two sides and so does cash flow. It has great practical and academic value to study the transform mechanism between cash value and cash flow risk.This paper has cash flow as the starting point and study the creation of cash flow, which begins with internal and external factors. After that, this paper finds out the influence of cash flow risk to the value of the company with study to the case of COSCO. Then an empirical study to Vanke and STZhongfang is dong to find out the impact factors, by a regression analysis to the potential factors from the corporate and the economy. It turns out that the money supply M2, housing sales price index, domestic loans, and the increase savings are with the biggest relation with cash flow. Then, the risk model of CR based on the regression results is established, and the CRs at risk on the confidence of 95% are got and compared to the actual value. The result performs well. Finally, with the empirical study of transform mechanism and cash study, the recommendations are made, which is constructing risk alarming system, cash flow balance match system and the cash flow budget system, with the cash flow control by quantity, quickness, direction and path.This paper combines the value creation theory and risk management theory with concentrating on the transform between them, which is a new study perspective. Besides, this paper chooses the real estate industry to do the empirical study and study the transform mechanism in corporates. This paper will provide not only the theoretical and technical support to corporate managers but also a new study perspective to academic researchers. |
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