Tourism Project Investment Decision Model And Effective Predictive Analytics

Tourism construction has risen to national strategy,accelerating the speed at developmenting all kinds of scenic spot (point), tourism recreation areas, such as theme parks, tourist hotel and other tourism investment projects.Tourism investment projects have become the core. However,the complexity of project investment decisions brings many problems.The blind investment decisions make some investment projects fail, lead to serious economic losses. It is thus clear that tourism investments'higher risks decide the investment decisions vital, and the decisions effect and investment returns for investors.This topic is focusing on how to establish scientific tourism project investment decision-making method. The thesis brings real option to the investment of tourism projects decision-making based on raditional investment decision-making method to establish tourism project investment decision model. Using this model to forecast benefit and measure the success of tourism project investment. Based on the third phase of wuxi lingshan, this paper expounds the whole process of real options model application, namely how to predict this scenic economic benefit and obtain the scientific investment decision-making results. Also it provides important reference meanings when other tourism projects use the method for investment decision analysis.Previous scholars mostly focused on research of tourism project development mode and flow for investment projects.The study of the forecast future benefit is not so much. Scholars always use the traditional method--discount cash flow method to predict benefits.It didn't take the flexibility of the option value of the investment projects into considerantion, thus excluded some uncertainty larger investment projects, affecting the right investment decision-making results. In view of this, this article takes real options method in on the basis of traditional discount cash flow method.It provides an important points about value creation under uncertain conditions,and predicts the benefits of tourism investment projects.This paper introduces the frontier of real option method to tourism investment decision, providing investment projects in tourism project investment the scientific basis for decision-making and methods and more accurately predict benefits of tourism projects, helping investors avoid risk in theprocess of decision-making and improve investment income.