The Empirical Study Of Combination Forecasting Model To Telecommunications Revenue In Shandong Province

A large number of references from this article summarized the development of the telecommunications industry, as well as the development of domestic and international telecommunications industry. Further defined the concept of telecom services revenue; profound analysis of the telecom business income policy.This paper established the telecommunications services volume forecasting model and forecasted the development of the telecommunications industry based on the analysis of the major impact of the factors.The paper expounded development of the telecommunications industry in China firstly, and pointed out the characters of telecommunications volume's data, such as nonlinear, small- sampled and complexities of factors affecting to each other. The paper introduced commonly forecasting methods. Such as the return of specific prediction method, smoothing index, grey model prediction, BP neural network, and combination forecasting .Each method based on different mathematical theory and model, so that they have different data requirements, different predicted accuracy and different predicted periods.The traditional methods in the telecommunications industry forecast based on analysis of factors. Based on this, we always set out the predicted return equation. But in the following circumstances such as it had little data, the affecting factors' relationship was complex and opaque, the result was not very good. Based on the developing characteristics and the main factors, this paper used telecom business revenue of Shandong Province of historical data between 1999-2008, we predicted the services volume on the different methods. In order to reflect the comparability of the forecasting methods, we only tested it on 2008 Telecommunications revenue. And we can compare the predict accuracy of different methods.In order to take use of each model's advantages, overcome the defect of single model, and achieve the purpose of improving the precision of prediction and the reliability of the result, this thesis applies combination forecasting to theTelecom business revenue of Shandong Province, and build a combination forecasting model. Finally, analyzing and comparing of the demonstration of Telecom business revenue of Shandong Province, the results illustrates that the superiority of combination forecasting is very obvious. That is, adopting a suitable weight, combination forecasting results are apparently better than the individual predicts results. In this thesis, the research results can be directly applying to Telecommunications revenue, providing reference for Telecommunications management and related software's development, and offering some ideas for future researching.