Empirical Analysis On The Effectiveness Of Monetary Policy Based On Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

Monetary policy is a kind of macroeconomic policies, by which government can take currency management means or measures (monetary policy tools) through the central bank to reach the Ultimate goal. The goals including adjusting and improving the country's economic condition, achieving price stability and full employment, balancing the global payments promote economic growth and so on. Whether the Monetary policy implementation can achieve the desired economic effect or not, depending on many factors'various influences.With the International economic prosperity and continuous development of economic theory research, lags of monetary policy have caused the theoretical attention. Relevant economists pointed out that financial control should fully consider the lags of monetary policy. By that means, economic policy can produce correct guidance and exert a positive influence on economics. Otherwise, it can make of the efficiency of monetary policy reduced greatly, even may produce opposite effects. When carrying out macro-financial control in China, we should take full account of the lag factors. Only in that way, can we successfully achieve the goals.Based on the sum-up of relevant theoretic and current researches on the validity of monetary policy, this paper builds up the frame of evaluating the validity of monetary policy in china: based on the money supply M1,we would analysis the relations between monetary policy and money supply,GDP growth and inflation. By which, we proved the existence of logs in the monetary implementing process from the angle of quantitative.At the mean time, we discuss the factors which count for the lags during the monetary policy transmission. And we offer a proposal to enhance the efficiency of monetary policy ,including : Authorizing the central bank relative right of independence, Perfecting monetary policy transmission mechanism, and Developing and perfecting financial markets.