Research On Order Forecasting And Inventory Utilization Strategy In Supply Chain Of Aerospace Manufacturing

Based on the supply chain of aerospace manufacturing, the paper introduces the current aerospace industry's development status and analyzes the order forecasting accuracy and inventory strategy issues existing in the supply chain, also point out the importance of research on these two issues.The paper takes two sites which belong to Company"A"as objectives, align with the sites'actual data to do the order forecasting revolution and inventory strategy research. Firstly, the paper overviews the methods and achievements in order forecasting field. Combined with factory B site's situation, the paper selects the time series forecasting method as main method to support B site to do the forecasting improvement. About inventory strategy, the paper analyzes several major inventory strategies'characteristics and choices a suitable inventory strategy for B site.On the basic of research, the paper discusses about B site's root causes for its low order forecasting accuracy. At first, the data collection process is not standard which caused its historical data is not enough for forecasting usage. After taking action to standardize B site's data resource, the paper uses moving average, exponential smoothing and least square these forecast method to forecast the B sites'product requirement. In order to assure the forecasting result's precision, the paper discuss about season and trend factors in order forecasting and assure all these factors be considered. At last the paper builds a combined forecast method which includes moving average& least square methods and bases on season factor calculation.On the other hand, the paper focuses on B site's inventory strategy issue. The whole company uses traditional inventory management ABC method to categorize materials and according the procumbent standards to purchase parts accordingly, the big purchase volume caused B site's cost is very high and create waste. The paper takes B site one kind of part as objectives, make use of data statistic method to summarize the order requirement's principle and do analysis. After a deep dive in the inventory problem, the paper choice (s,S) strategy to build B site's inventory model. In order to get the most optimal inventory strategy and configures, the paper uses full factors'DOE to discuss about the relationship between key factors and inventory cost and then provide the least inventory cost model configure.At last, the paper choices D site which is quite different from B site to do the research on order forecasting and inventory strategy. Compared with B sites'hundred kinds of parts, D site has thousand kinds of parts to manage. The schedule for material planning is more complex. The usage of MRP solves the D site's planning and management problem, but in the section of order forecasting and inventory strategy still not good enough. In order to get the MRP system better, the paper takes advantage of Monte Carlo simulation to enhance MRP order forecasting strategy and use software CB to increase the choices for order forecasting in system. About D site's MRP system inventory management, the paper adds more calculation method to calculate the inventory cost, and make reference for company decision.From the research findings and sites'practice, the paper provides methods and strategy suitable for B and D sites'order forecast and inventory optimization strategy, can effectively improve the B, D two sites'demand forecasting accuracy and process performance, as well as the inventory cost. The revolutions create benefits for company and also provide reference for China's aerospace manufacturing supply chain risks management.