Research On International Express Market And Its Cyclical Characteristics

Express delivery is also known as the courier, which is a time critical mode of transport. Express products are relatively diverse, and now international express market is in much oligopoly. UPS, FedEx, DHL and TNT are four giants in the international express market, especially in the transnational express delivery market. These four giants totally hold a 80% market share.This paper analyzes and sorts out express and express industry, and studies the four major express delivery giant and international express market pattern. The results show that, the transnational express parcel volume in international express shows obvious cyclical fluctuation features, meanwhile have long-term growth trend, periodic fluctuation trend and seasonal fluctuation trend. Global transnational express business quarterly data is chosen as the object for cyclical characteristics analysis and modeling.In cycle characteristics analysis, this paper applies the moving average line method, particularly the centralized moving average line to determine the cycle, then applies the time series analysis of the factor decomposition and cycle analysis methods. Generally speaking, time sequence may contain long-term trend factor T, cycle factor C, seasonal factor S and irregular factor I. Using the X12 seasonal adjustment method to determine the S factor, respectively applies the additive model and the multiplicative model to get the seasonal factor S, able to analyze two different models from the two dimensions of absolute quantity and relative quantity; For long-term trend factor T and cycle factor C, this paper adopted the HP filtering method to obtain cycle trend factor C from transnational express volume, then discriminate several apparent cycles and get a certain grasp and understanding of the fluctuations. And applies time series ARIMA model to model the original data and predicts its future trend, eventually determine the ARIMA(3,1,1) (1,1,1)4 model and pass the test. The final results are relatively ideal and can be used for practical application and forecast.This paper shows that international express market has obvious cyclical fluctuation characteristic, and conducted the qualitative and quantitative analysis. For China's express delivery enterprises which try to enter the international express market, it has its significance and value, which can provide a theoretical basis and guidance when express companies make strategic decision and operations planning.