Study On Cultivated Land Production Forecasting Based On Application Of Farmland Classification In Feidong

In China, food security is an eternal subject, which is related to people's livelihood, social development and stability. With the accelerating urbanization and industrialization, combined with per capita income growth and lifestyle changes, will lead to a substantial increase in food demand, and reduction of arable land, water shortages will worsen, food production will be increasingly difficult . Therefore, the correct understanding of situation and development trend of food production, and accordingly develop appropriate agricultural policy has become increasingly important.The thesis selected Feidong County as research area, making dynamic changes of grain production analysis, through the indices, such as grain output, grain sown area, unit cultivated area of food production, food production, etc. Moreover, the paper calculated Feidong food production, based on the results of farmland classification in land resources survey project, and achievable grain yield&Use Grade Index model; meanwhile, predicted farmland pressure index of Feidong county, with gray model and variable-weight combination forecasting method. The following results were:1. The statistics of grain production in 1997-2009 changes fluctuated, with a slight increase, the main food crops in Feidong are padepaddy and wheat.2. The achievable food production can be achieved, for 857,300 tons, in 2020,which, yield pur unit area on cultivated land can be achieved 10731.07 kg / hm~2.3. In 2020 ,the populaion in Feidong will be 1.1518 million, the minimum capital cultivated land will become 0.0465 hm~2, the pressure index of the cultivated land will achieve to 0.6691.4. As influenced by the law of diminishing returns, annual growth of yield pur unit area on cultivated land in Feidong will decline year by year .5. The challenge to Feidong is that, agricultural science and technology can hardly develop because of persistent population increase and cultivated land decrease. Owing to frequent natural disaster and frail agricultural infrastructure,it's hard for Feidong to increase its yield pur unit area on cultivated land from 8356.78 kg/hm~2(2009)to 10731.07 kg/hm~2 (2020) .