| Monetary policy is an important component of macroeconomic control system. And the validity of monetary policy mostly lies on the efficiency of monetary policy transmission mechanism. Since the housing reform in 1998, both consumption and investment for real estate have increased rapidly in China, and it impels the real estate market to become flourishing and grand gradually. The development of real estate market not only brings remarkable influence to people's living and national economy, but also has more and more strong impact on monetary policy system. Therefore, as an important part of asset prices, real estate price consequentially becomes one new transmission channel of monetary policy. But recently, although the government has implemented a good many tightening monetary policy, China's real estate prices have still increased rapidly. So the effectiveness of monetary policy was questioned. It's certain that the sensitive and effective monetary policy transmission mechanism is the basis for the successful implementation of monetary policy. In China's real situation, can regulating and controlling real estate prices by monetary policy be effective? And furthermore can real estate prices transfer the information of monetary policy to the real economy through several macroeconomic variables (just like consumption and investment)? So the systematical research on China's monetary policy conduction mechanism through the real estate prices has great theoretical and practical significance on perfecting theoretical research about monetary policy, improving the validity of monetary policy, and vindicating the stability of financial system and macro economy.This thesis will study china's monetary policy conduction mechanism through the real estate price. The main issue is to find out whether china's monetary policy conduction mechanism through the real estate price is available, and if it exists, whether its two phases can work effectively. Firstly, the thesis studies the impact of monetary policy on real estate price and the impact of real estate price on real economy theoretically. In the first link, the conductive effects include interest rate, credit and assets combination effects. In the second link, the conductive effects mainly include the conductive effects of real estate price on consumption and investment. Secondly, it does descriptive analysis on the effect of monentary policies on real estate price and the correlation between real estate price and the real economic variables during recent years. And in the part of empirical study, it firstly uses the econometric methods of time series to analyse the conductive effects of monentary policies on real estate price. Then by combining national gross and regional panel data during the course of 2000 to 2007, it establishes the consumption and investment functions to analyze the second link detailedly.On the basis of theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper finally educes the main conclusion that presently, there has been a monentory policy conductive channel through real estate price in China, the monentory policy instruments can adjust real estate price to a certain extent, and the effect of real estate on investment is very significant. But there are also some blocks, such as the time lags of monetary policy control are evident, monetary policy instrument that has significant influence both in the long and short term is not available, and the effect of real estate price on residents' consumption is not significant presently. Therefore, in order to improve the validity of monetary policy conduction mechanism through the real estate price, finally this paper proposes some countermeasures, such as improving the validity of monetary policy in controlling real estate price, perfecting real estate market and exerting the conductive effect of real estate price on consumption according to the obstructive factors. |
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