Empirical Study On The Transmission Mechanism Effectiveness Of Real Estate Market In China Monetary Policy

After several decades of development, our realty industry has been one of the pillar industries in national economy.The development and deepening of real estate market opens up the action scope of monetaty policy and increases the transmission channels of monetary policy.But this process will make the monetary policy tranmission machanism more complex and increase the difficulty of the implementation of the central bank’s monetary policy.Therefore,to realize the effective transmission between real estate market and monetary policy and improve the validity of monetary policy,the research on the tranmission mechanism effectieness of real estate market in China monetary policy has important theoretical and practical significance.First,the body paragraphs expatiate the taches of the transmission mechanism and establish the analytical framework. In theory part,the thesis separately expatiates the two around links of the channel of the monetary policy through the real estate market theoretically. In the first link,monetary policy exerts inflences on the price of real estate by interest rate,credit and asset integration. In the second link, the change of the price of real estate exerts influences on the consumption, investment and inflation.Second,in practical part,it uses the methods of corrlelation analysis,Granger causality analysis,cointegration analysis and the impulse response function to practically test the effects in the tranmission machanism.The empirical result shows that:China"s real estate prices can transfer the influences of monetary policy to the real economy.The price of real estate can be an important channel of China’s monetary policy transmission. In the first link,the effects of money supply and credit are positive and prominent,but the effect of interest rate is negative and inapparent.So it is more effective for the money supply and credit to be the intermediary than interest rate.In the second link,the increase of the price restrains consumption. Investment effcet and inflation effect are positie and remarkable.At last,this article furtherly analyzes the obstacles in the process of China’s monetary policy to regulate and control real estate price,and proposes appropriate countermersures,trying to proide some theory and practice support for a healthy and stable development of China’s real estate market.