The Analysis On Influencing Factors In China Stock Markets

The stock market as a capital market, should not be underestimated the importance as a part of economy. Financing function of the stock market is significant, it supports economic development and promotes optimization, the stock market also reflects the level of national economy and the different levels of stock market have different roles of promoting the economic development. On the other hand, the stock market is difficult to measure the impaction from the economic factors, many economic factors will result in different impact on the stock market. The starting point of this paper is to verify the significant impact on the stock market from the economic factors.The first chapter describes the domestic and foreign present research situation about the influencing factors of the stock market. This chapter intends to establish a general outline and plan the concrete research steps.The second chapter describes the theory about economic factors impact to the stock market volatility. This part mainly uses normative analysis of classic economic theory to introduce the economic situation at home and abroad, and analyze impact of these economic factors on the stock market from the classic theory. Finally, it selects GDP, exchange rate, money supply, gold prices, stock index futures, the Dow Jones Index, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index from economic factors as variables of the model, and takes preliminarily arranges.The third chapter describes the vector autoregressive model, model data requirements, parameter setting, model checking and the associated part error correction model, impulse response function, variance decomposition, and cointegration relationship.The forth chapter makes the empirical test, the research conclusions show that it has cointegration relationship between the selected economic variables and stock market, so it verifies the long-term equilibrium relationship between stock market and economic factors. In addition, through the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, it proves that the stock market is obviously affected by money supply, exchange rate, GDP, gold price, while the external factors the FTSE Xinhua A50 index futures,the U.S. stock market affect limited. This paper obtains a main research conclusion that China's stock market has its own operating principles, and the most influencing factor is the market itself.Last chapter from the obtained empirical conclusions, take some policy recommendations from the construction of the market itself, relationship between monetary policy and stock market, global economic linkage impact on the stock market etc.