Comparison Of Measurement Methods Of The Real Estate Market Bubble

In the real estate market, the high prices have become the focus of attention, this problem whether the high prices is the housing bubble needs studying. whether the real estate bubble exists or not? If the real estate bubble exists, how serious is the real estate bubble or how much is the real estate bubble? Are there specific method to judge these questions quantitatively? whether the method to measure the real estate market bubble can get the same conclusion? Because of the great interest to the real estate market bubble, I start to write this article.There are three types of measurement methods,which are indicator analysis, statistical tests, model.Domestic scholars generally use a method of empirical analysis of the real estate market bubble, and some scholars have used several methods, but generally they did not compare the advantages disadvantages or application conditions.Real estate is generally divided into residential housing, office real estate, general commercial real estate categories. In view of residential housing and livelihood are closely related, this article will attempt to measure the residential real estate bubble, because that the real estate market has bubble does not mean which the overall residential housing estate has generally bubble. This article gets the following conclutions。The first conclusion, the index analysis and the state space model method have differences on theory, concerns, data quality, application conditions and empirical results.1, the theoretical basis of two different methods. Index analysis method is based on the real estate industry and macro-economic development in harmony, which is a barometer of macroeconomic development. If both the development of coordinated, real estate industry problems, the development is not normal. Method depends on the state space model is based on rational expectations theory under the conditions of supply and demand theory that real estate prices are based on supply and demand equilibrium price.2, concerns the two methods are different. Index analysis is concerned that the ratio between the size indicators, early warning through a comprehensive index to make the situation. State space model method is concerned that the basis of the real estate prices, the market price as on the basis of price deviation from the real estate bubble size.3, the two methods require different quality of the data. Index analysis of the data requirements than the loose, the state space model approach to data quality requirements more stringent, requiring all of the indicator data of sufficient length, and the sound of impact indicators of statistical data.4, two methods of application conditions have difference. Indicators of statistical data analysis in the real estate situation is not perfect so that they can be not used, and state-space model requires the development of residential real estate market matures, more complete statistics.5, target analysis can calculate the size of the bubble, but it may be noted that early warning situation, and the use of simple and intuitive. State space model method to calculate the size of a bubble, but there is no warning of the approach the situation.The second conclusion, a comprehensive real estate market of 1998 to 2009, residential real estate market bubble in Shanghai, the average size is 0.56, degree of the bubble is serious.2004,2007,2009, bubble is over 0.8, the bubble in 2009 increase the abnormal, to 1.06, an increase of 47.22% foam.The third conclusion, analysis with reference to the early warning indicators of ideas, this paper attempts to use state-space model method as an early warning mean value of the foam showed the results of two methods of early warning measure the overall agreement, but the analysis of early warning indicators of the situation than the state-space model warning the situation to be more stringent. 2000 to 2009, the Shanghai residential real estate market bubble early warning situation is from the normal, alert to rise to dangerous. Since 2004, Shanghai residential real estate market bubble is into the dangerous range,which should arouse the attention of relevant departments.In reaching these conclusions this case, also put forward their own proposals: 1, general analysis can be directly used indicators relevant to the real estate bubble description and analysis.2, we can learn the early warning indicators of the situation analysis, the use of foam on the state space model of the mean bubble size of the law to make early warning.3, we must strengthen supervision and regulation of the real estate market and develop effective policies to curb speculation, the real estate market back to normal.4, we should strengthen the banking system, risk control, to prevent the bubble burst on the financial system losses.5, we should enhance awareness of prevention of foreign hot money so that we can prevent foreign hot money blowing big bubbles.Of course, because of limited capacity, this study still inadequate. First, the Chinese real estate market has a shorter period of development, this article can only find the 1995 to 2009 annual data to analysis in the selection of indicators, some indicators has no way to get data, which can be missed some of the information. I think that quarterly data or monthly data is the best, the results will be more accurate. Second, the real estate market is a more complex market. In our country, the real estate market, relatively strong regional characteristics, so in addition to residential real estate market in Shanghai to measure, but also according to different cities in different regions to measure the size, so that it can be the country's residential real estate market grasp.