Research On The Risk Of China's Sovereign Debt And Its Precaution

With The outbreak and spread of the Euro zone sovereign debt crisis, the risk of sovereign debt around the world once again becomes a hot topic in economic circles. According to "Global Financial Stability Report" published by International Monetary Fund, sovereign debt burden in many countries has been increasing and the risk of sovereign debt has increased too. Different from the period before 80s in the 20th Century, many emerging economies and developed economies are also facing a huge risk of sovereign debt now, such as the United States, Japan. The risk of Chinese explicit debt at a high level and implicit debt is a growing problem. It can be said the risk of sovereign debt problems become a major problem of Governments. Therefore, the risk of sovereign debt problems of the theory has certain significance in the current.In order to make up the rareness, the thesis analyzes the basic situation of the sovereign debt and infers some new conclusions. In this thesis, we analysis the relevant concepts of sovereign debt and risk, the situation and the risk of the level of sovereign debt, then summarizes the lessons arising from the outbreak of the typical sovereign debt crisis.In addition, we use some data estimation method to get data description for China's sovereign debt and risk indicators, so that readers can have an overall understanding of our sovereign risk.The thesis divides into four parts:The first part:a general overview of the risk of sovereign debtFirst, in this paper, sovereign debt risk theory results were consolidated. Domestic and international scholars begin to study the of sovereign debt risk from the bond risk, with the research, the implicit debt risk has also been incorporated into the framework of sovereign debt risk. Analysis sovereign debt risk, we must first have a clear grasp of connotation of sovereign debt, so the next is the theory of sovereign debt, including the concept of sovereign debt, characteristics, risk.The second part:Analysis of China sovereign debtThe second chapter is the focus chapters of this paper, it analyzes the existing major issues of China sovereign debt, including two aspects such as explicit debt and Implicit debt. The purposes of this chapter is that, through the analysis of the current deficiencies of China sovereign debt, reflecting China's current level of sovereign debt risk and take the true measure of sovereign risk and the need for prevention measures.The third part:Experience in sovereign debt crisesThis chapter is divided into two parts:The first point is related to aspects of economic development model. A country's level of economic development determines the debt capacity of the national debt should be at the same time when the stagnant level of economic development, makes the implicit debt of apparent increase a country's debt burden. The second point is the issue of sovereign wealth fund. Sovereign wealth funds from the budget surplus and foreign exchange reserves, thus sovereign wealth funds and sovereign debt has some connection.The fourth part:the Suggestions to prevent against the risk of China sovereign debt.This Part basis on the analysis of the preceding sections makes a few points of countermeasures on China sovereign debt risk prevention. First is to improve China's public finance system, put the sovereign debt risk prevention into the overall situation of the financial system. Second, to further improve debt management, optimize the structure of debt, strengthen the bond funds management, promoting bond market development, size and distribution of the national debt more reasonable development. Third, local government debt risk prevention measures.