Financial Distress Prediction For The Import And Export Enterprises In China Use Of The BP Neural Network

Since the international economic integration, and the pace of China's socialist market economy system speed up, the enterprises faces competition and more intense environment. Financial distress prediction for listed company is one of the hot research topics in recent years. America's subprime crisis in 2007 gave us a good revelation, in the fierce market competition, the enterprise can occur at any time a financial crisis, even into bankruptcy. Therefore, the establishment of a viable financial warning system will be very useful and important to investors, managers and stakeholders.First of all, we reviews the studies and literature about financial crisis' early warning, then combined with the import and export enterprises' own characteristics, build the financial crisis early warning indicator system in which contains inancial and non-financial indicators. Then we use the fuzzy clustering methods to define the import and export enterprises in China's financial crisis, and divided the financial crisis into four levers. After that,we used BP neural network to build a financial early warning system of China's import and export enterprises, and test it's accuracy, results show that the constructed model is very effective in prediction. After that we use the model to analysis TCL Corporation's financial status and the reason. Finally, with the current status of China's foreign trade, we give the import and export enterprises in China some prevention measures and recommendations.