Research On Financial Distress Prediction Of High-tech Enterprises

Our country has been paying more attention to economic promotion of hightech enterprises.Due to the huge R&D investments and the high uncertainty of innovation in high-tech enterprises,the possibility of financial distress is increasing.According to the statistics of practice,20% to 30% of high-tech enterprises have achieved success is the price of 70% to 80% of failure in hightech enterprises,so financial distress prediction is more important for high-tech enterprises.The financial distress prediction of high-tech enterprises is significance for improving the ability of financial distress prediction and ensuring the sustainable development of high-tech enterprises.Based on the characteristics of high-tech enterprises,from internal and external causes of financial distress analysis and the function and process of financial distress prediction,this essay selects indices of financial distress prediction in high-tech enterprises,and selects data of ST high-tech enterprises and non-ST high-tech enterprises in 2016 as the sample.According to characteristics of indices in ST and non-ST high-tech enterprise,using the K-S test,T test of independent sample and Mann-Whitney U test to screen out these indices,to get indices with significant difference,then using random forest to further analyze the degree of importance of these indices,then setting up brief and effective index system of financial distress prediction for high-tech enterprises.The BP neural network is selected as the basic model,and using FOA to optimize the BP neural network,to construct financial distress prediction model of high-tech enterprises based on FOA-BP neural network,to train and predict the FOA-BP neural network model.According to the process of establishing financial distress prediction model of high-tech enterprises and the analyses of model prediction result,giving well-directed and specific precautions for high-tech enterprises.This essay provides theoretical basis for financial distress prediction analysis of high-tech enterprise and construction of financial distress prediction model,it has strong theoretical value and practical significance.