Ground State Level Cigarette Sales Influencing Factors Of Forecasting

In our country, the tobacco industry is protected by the tobacco exclusive agency law, which is the monopoly of the industry. However, China's can lead to cigarette tariff sharply down and non-tariff barriers cancel gradually, WTO accession caused the tobacco industry in our country to get involved in competition in an open market environment. China tobacco enterprise must consider how to take advantage in the fierce competition, how to satisfy customer demand, and how to improve the service level. "Organize the supplements according to customer orders" is a feasible method. Separation of the right of management from the right of ownership in industry and commerce separation of cigarette circulation mode, a quick response to cigarette sale must solve the bottleneck; "According to the customer order organization source" will be an effective way of sale. And demand forecast as "according to customer order organization source" sale model of the first step at this point has become the key link of cigarette sale. Sales volume as the first step of "Organize the supplements according to customer orders" is the key link of the tobacco industry.The first chapter of this paper analyses the theory of tobacco sale volume forecast, the existing condition analysis of forecast method, the existing condition analysis of factor which influence the sale volume of tobacco industry and the existing condition analysis of factor which influence the sale volume of marketing establishment. At last of this chapter, the author gives the Research Background, the Research Significance and the Research Purpose of this paper.In the theory part of tobacco sale volume forecasting, at first, the author gives the way of qualitative analysis and the way of quantitative analysis which are used in sale volume forecast. At the second part, the author analyses how to choose the suitable forecast method in accordance with the characters of cigarette sale, the forecast cycle and the forecast dimensionality. At the same time, this chapter analyses the data sources, the data Collecting Techniques and the test criterion.In the third part, the author analyses the dimension, the period and the flow path of tobacco forecasting. To level cities'tobacco company, there are three types of forecast, which are monthly forecasting, semi-annual forecasting, and yearly forecasting. There are two dimensions of semi-annual and monthly forecasting, which are brand dimensionality and market dimensionality. It is necessary to level cities Tobacco Company choosing a suitable forecast model according to forecast cycle. In the part of the existing condition analysis of level cities'tobacco company demand forecasting, Author analysis the existing forecasting model of level cities'tobacco company, which include Sample forecasting method, Moving averages forecasting method, Growth trend model, the Trend growth model in a planned way, Integrated forecasting model.Next, paper studies the factors which influence the sale volume of level cities' tobacco company.There are four types of factors, which are Long Tendency factor, Seasonal factors, Circulation factors and Random factors. The Long Tendency factors main include macro-economy indicators. The Seasonal factors mean the festival and holiday can lead to the increasing of sale volume. The Circulation factors are composed of the factor which can lead to the economic fluctuation, the Random factor is uncertainty factors. Next, the Author finds out 22 factors, and then sorts out the factors using gray relative analysis method (GRAM) summing up the main factors. Then, the author sets up the Double Logarithmic Model to analyze the relationship of sale volume and the factors and then sets up the influencing factors model of tobacco sale volume using the Eviews do regression analysisAt last, the author does empirical analysis according to the sale data of S city to test and verify the influencing factors model. According to the empirical analysis, we can know the important factor of tobacco sale is long tendency factors. The increasing of GDP and the increasing of second industry and tertiary industry can result to the tobacco sale. Similarly, the growth in the living standard will give rise to the increasing of tobacco sale to some extent...