The Research On The Early Warning Of Financial Crisis Of The Listed Companies

With the quick development of stock market in our country,the number of listed company has increased,market scale also has been found enlarged.This has become major force which promotes growth in national economy and has monumental contributions to national economy.In spite of this.it is obvious that there remains a trend in the polarization of listed company's performance and it shows a trend of further expansion.More and more companies have got into financial trouble,as a result,more and more investors and managers are aware that it is emergent to build a quick financial trouble forecast system to avoid investment risk.Listed company's financial trouble forecast is a key concern to the investors,managers and supervision institutions.The financial trouble of listed company doesn't occur suddenly,but a gradual process.So it is possible for us to take effective measures to avoid that.This test is based on the overall study of present situation of domestic and foreign listed company' finantional trouble and existing achievements in this field.It marked by the symbol "out going warning" which means whether it or not has got into financial trouble.It uses financial trouble company's variables and non-financial one's variables and sets logistic regression analysis.Through such way,we will seek for accurate variable which can predict listed company's financial trouble and thus set financia trouble forecast model to adapt to the situation of our country.Due to the nature of different industries, financial models, including the financial ratios and its parameters will also be different, if the neglect of the financial characteristics of different industries differences, the accuracy of the model will be affected, that is, different models should be used to study the different industries. Therefore, this article tests 45 financial trouble company and 45 non-financial ones under the category of manufacturing (Succompanies has been dealt with specially first time from 2005 to 2007). Test results show that compared with the model which contains only financial indicators.the model which contains non-financial indicators can do better in demonstration.and can be practical in practical application. the model can forecast the possible financial trouble in following three years. the accuracy rate is only 73.35 percent with the use of financial indicators only, but when the introduction of non-financial indicators, their accuracy rate rose to 83.3%. The test accuracy rate is more higher and the use of financial indicators has some practical value the use of financial indicators.