China's Listed Companies' Financial Crisis Early-warning Model

With the rapid growth of Chinese stock market, financial states of listed companies are concerned more and more by their stakeholders such as shareholders, creditors and government. Therefore it is very significant to carry out effective advance warning for financial states of listed companies.Based on the mature experiences domestic and abroad, this paper classified the listed companies according to the total assets scale:under and above ten hundred million yuan.In the course of modeling, at first choose 40 companies be special treated because the financial situation is unusual from 2002 to 2006, and choose 40 samples as paired company in such aspects as trade, scale of assets be similar with above-mentioned companies, and classified two kinds of companies according to the scale of the assets. Secondly choose 21 financial index reflect enterprise's debt paying ability, profit ability, efficiency of management of the assets, stock right structure, etc. Then examine variables by T-test,use factor analysis and logistic regression to build the model ,finally,use the reserving sample to examine the model .On the basis of comparing two kinds of models finally, draw the conclusion: draw the conclusion: it can improve the predict ability of model by classific the listed company ;For companies of different scale, the factor that determine its financial situation is different, so enterprise's caretaker, investors and supervision department, should make different management tactics, capital project and supervision policy according to different companies.