The Study On Mechanism And Regulation Of House Prices Fluctuation Influencing Residents' Consumption

As a risky asset,real estate has the double attributes of depreciation and consumer goods. Since our country entirely canceled free welfare-oriented public housing distribution in the late 1990s,the real estate market has achieved unprecedented development,and the real estate investment enthusiasm always keep still,with the house prices rising.But the reality of the rising in house prices and the falling in residents ultimately consuming rate makes the relationship between house prices and consumption concerned by the parties.House prices fluctuation how exactly to influence household consumption,and how to further influence macro-economy fluctuation,these mechanism still didn't get clear systematically heckled,and its affect extent and size also has no accordance and recognized conclusions.Considering the double properties of real estate,this article makes the new definition and divisional to wealth effect and extrusion effect of the house prices fluctuation influencing consumption,and using the theory analysis and comparative analysis to detailedly elaborate the mechanism of the housing prices fluctuations influencing consumption,and eliciting the conclusion that house price fluctuation has the bidirectional effect on the consumption.In general,house prices fluctuation and consumption incremental quantity present pour u-shaped relation,and presenting a curve that it's smooth and tilt to the origin with consume flow. Then through the methods of theory and empirical combination,we analyzed the relationship of housing prices fluctuation, credit constraints,assets selection and consumer behavior, along with the relationship among the house prices fluctuation,consumption and economic fluctuation,and educed some summing-ups. The main conclusions are as follows:(1)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between house prices and consumption,and the effect is weak negative;(2)The selection of assets is influenced by the house prices fluctuation, and some different assets also exist mutual influence;(3)There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the house prices fluctuation and macro-economy fluctuation.If this equilibrium relationship appears deviation in the short-term, economic system corrections mechanism can not play a significant role.It shows that government's regulations to house prices are necessary;(4)It exists a two-way Granger causality between house prices and GDP.And according to impulse response, the impacts from eath other on both sides have a strong influence.It shows that there is a mutual feedback mechanism between the house prices fluctuation and macro-economy fluctuations,and also shows that it is necessary to coordinate house prices and the macro-economy so that they can produce benign interaction,and avoid the interactions into a vicious circle and shock. Finally,this paper put forward the suggestion about the real estate regulation.The main innovation places of this paper may reflect on the definition to double effects of real estate and the derivation to theoretical model,and through the consumer perspective,using VAR model to analyze the effects of house prices fluctuation influncing residents'assets selection and economic fluctuation.