The Effect Of Housing Price Fluctuations On Resident Consumption

Housing prices and resident consumption are two hot issues related to the national economy and people's living.Under the background of house price fluctuations frequently,insufficient consumption obviously and economic downward pressure,it receives more and more attention whether the housing price fluctuations affect the resident consumption from the academic researchers and the relevant department.Therefore,the study on the effect of housing price fluctuations on the resident consumption has important theoretic and practical value,for it could provide a new channel to stabilize the housing market and solve the problem of insufficient consumption demand,and then it's helpful to improve residents' life,expand domestic demand and stabilize economic growth.Based on the existing literature research,this paper firstly takes life cycle-permanent income theory of consumption function as a framework,and analyzes the transmission mechanisms and control factors of the effect of housing price fluctuations on consumption,and then it makes an empirical study from three aspects: the asymmetry,the control factors and the transmission channels of the impact of the housing price fluctuations on the resident consumption.As an empirical study on the first aspect,we use the latest data and panel vector autoregressive model to test the impact of housing prices rise and fall on consumption and the asymmetry in China,in view of the domestic literature concerning the impact of housing price fluctuations on household consumption,most of them only studying on the impact of rising prices on consumption.The empirical results showed that the impacts of housing prices rising and falling in different periods on the consumption of urban residents in China appear different asymmetry,and the impact of price fluctuations on consumption has been strengthened after the financial crisis,but housing prices falling has the greater influence degree than those of housing prices rising.As an empirical study on the second aspect,for most of the domestic research shows that housing price fluctuations in China can produce inhibition or weak impact on consumption,we use the annual panel data of 31 provinces in China and the marginal function analysis method to get more accurate measurement of the national and provincial housing wealth effect,and in order to study the cause factors that restrict housing wealth effect of China to fullly play,we further make an empirical test about the influences of population age structure,family asset structure and monetary policy on housing wealth effect.The empirical results showed that the marginal housing wealth effect of the elderly population proportion is largest,and the marginal housing wealth effect of the children' proportion lies in the second,and the marginal housing wealth effect of housing assets proportion is minimum,but the marginal effects of the elderly population proportion and housing assets proportion have gone into the downward phase,and those of children's proportion still in the upward stage;Monetary policy has a significant direct effect on consumption,but has very weak influence on housing wealth effect.As an empirical study on the third aspect,we make the use of counterfactual simulation study based on SVAR model combined with the conduction mechanisms of housing price fluctuations impacting on consumption,and analyze the size of influences of housing price fluctuations on resident consumption through different channels.The empirical research results show: Among the three transmission channels of housing price fluctuations impacting on the resident consumption,the role of the credit channel is the maximum,followed by the revenue channel,and the channel for savings is the last.When the different channels play a role,different sorts of residents could show the different reaction,so we can understand the deeper causes that housing price fluctuations change consumption by means of the effect size of the different transmission channels in which the housing price fluctuations produce impact on the resident consumption.