The Evaluation And Analysis Of The Gold Price And It's Influential Factors

In 2008 there was a serious global financial crisis. The credit bubble burst make the majority of investors shrinkage their assets, residents losing confidence in the credit money, and each country take response to the crisis in the increase money supply, increased fiscal spending, made the dollar depreciated. From 2007 to 2010 the price of gold chart, we can clearly see that the price of gold has been an upward trend, during the economic crisis which is obviously affected by the crisis. This paper studies the following two questions:First, gold have currency of properties or not; the second is based on this attribute of the price of gold.First, we should solve the problem is found the properties of gold,only in the clear understanding on the basis of the nature of gold to be able to better study on this basis, a series of gold derived from the functions. In this paper from the history of gold, coin gold as a material property and the natural defects, and other monetary point of view, prove properties of gold as a currency in terms of fundamental human factor given the political. First, the history of gold as money was investigated, focusing on the historic gold standard for analysis. Second, as a high-quality gold coins to discuss the properties of materials and found that the emergence of gold as a monetary standard, with historical reasons, but also a reason stage of scientific and technological development. Third, gold is its production of natural defects in the number and uneven distribution of mineral deposits, bring some form of unfairness, while its volume is limited, unable to meet the needs of economic development, so the credit has also become an alternative currency in the history of inevitable.Secondly, the current price of gold by various factors, and these factors influence the price of gold for the difference. The current is generally considered the gold price has a significant impact, including supply and demand factors, the dollar index, real interest rates, inflation, oil prices, the Dow Jones index. There are many other factors also affect the price of gold, such as the PMI purchasing managers index, the employment index, but the view is not very mainstream, not in this discussion. Econometric analysis using as a basic tool, the use of the dollar index, U.S. real interest rates, inflation, oil prices and the Dow Jones index as independent variables, the gold price as the dependent variable, the price of gold to build a VAR model of factors using the Johansen co integration Inspection of the gold price and its corresponding long-term relationship between the influencing factors to inspect, by constructing a vector error correction model (VECM) to perfect the model, then used Granger causality test of the causal relationship between the factors studied. Finally, the use of impulse response functions and variance decomposition obtained for each factor level of gold price changes. The empirical analysis the following conclusions:supply and demand for physical gold the impact of weak gold prices, while the dollar index for the enormous impact of the price of gold, which constitutes the main reason for gold price volatility; long term, changes in gold prices and the U.S. changes in real interest rates to maintain the basic consistency, but we found by quantitative analysis, the short term this relationship is not very obvious; gold price in the long term hedge against inflation does have the effect, which can be used as a powerful tool against inflation, But the short term but no significant relationship between the two; oil prices affect the price of gold is very small, while the Dow Jones index and gold prices consistent negative relationship, this relationship is clear by the chart analysis to come.Again, in a separate analysis of the price of gold on the basis of various factors, we analysis cause the gold price formation mechanism, and an inspection will be divided into the normal fluctuations in the price of gold times and extraordinary times, they were investigated in different economic environment, gold prices path and the fluctuations in state formation. Through the analysis of the dollar index, based on the empirical analysis, using co integration and Granger causality test for determining mechanism of gold in different periods were analyzed in detail. In normal times, the decision mechanism of the gold price by the dollar zone real economy and the dollar return on investment of broad money supply, high return on investment if the dollar zone in other economies, global capital flows to follow will be a substantial dollar zone to promote the appreciation of the dollar, gold prices down. On the other hand the U.S. dollar money supply, the greater the supply, the lower the dollar index, gold prices higher. In extraordinary times, usually during the economic crisis, people affected by crises, lost confidence in the currency of credit, which are often prone to higher gold prices soared even. The conclusion is that the price of gold, the most fundamental of credit by the people's confidence index for the strength of the currency impact, but also can be said to attribute the extent to which its currency is restored.Finally, this paper with the background of economic crisis in 2008, on the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global economic crisis in the gold price trend analysis. The empirical test, in the economic crisis and the corresponding changes in the price of gold broad money supply was based on data analysis, this paper the global financial crisis on several key events, the key point and gold prices were correlated with changes in sexual analysis, we found the financial crisis reduced confidence credit currency, which pushed gold prices continue to rise. And found that the quantitative easing policy of the United States for the broad money supply has a key impact of the dollar has greatly increased the supply of credit money, and the empirical analysis we know that it will become the gold price increases boost power. Economic recovery through the confidence of U.S. residents, and the price of gold comprehensive analysis of external factors, the paper predicted a long period of time the dollar will continue to maintain the continued upward trend.