| The main research subject of this article is the stock ( A shares ) in some form of technology of forecasting the price, and through the historical statistical data, by using the probability statistical method to make T test, held in 5 days, 10 days, 20 days three period yield results is remarkable effective to judge in the form of technology whether can obtain significant positive returns. And determine whether it can serve as a kind of technical trading strategy reference index.According to the text combined I study the technical index classification, this paper is divided into six parts. The first part of introduction mainly elaborated on the stock market of some of the basic situation and this article want to study direction and content, as well as the structure and concept frame of mind; second part focuses on the elaboration in the securities trading history about technical indicators have reference value to the hypothesis argue, divided into efficient market hypothesis and the random walk hypothesis, this part mainly lies in the description of technical indexes of the origin and development of the important role of care, to an early introduction and bedding. The third part is the study of the technology of" W" technology index of morphology and main characteristics, through the historical data value of statistical computation and validation, it is significantly effective conclusion, and the chapters make a brief summary on use. Fourth and the fifth part is the same for the other two form of technology and technology make an introduction to the technology, the control form, in the flush to look at the set software for similar technology trend and technical morphology morphology characteristics of technology stocks, the stocks data one record, record something occurs when the purchase price in five days, ten days after the closing price, closing price and the closing price in twenty days, and five days respectively, ten days, twenty day closing price and the purchase price to be a yield calculation, then all a time node returns to calculate the mean rate of return, making the T value test, draw yield is significantly effective conclusion. If the test yield is not significant, that is not a reliable technical reference index, but to save side, we will use data with the same period in the market rate of return is compared, in order to judge in the absence of significant rate of return is greater than the market has a good hedge. This is also the technical indicators using a key. As the sixth part of this paper, also the last part, emphasis is laid on the three kinds of technical indexes to make a comprehensive analysis and summary, and taking into account the technical index of some specific use matters needing attention and some prospects for future technology research.The research results indicate that, from the study of three techniques in the selected shape, holding 5, 10 shareholding and ownership of 20 of three points in time, using t test were found to be highly significant, i.e. in three selected point in time can prove three technical indicators can be obtained significant positive returns, so it can be used as our trading strategy reference index. Further, by three technical indicators yield with the same period in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index yield were analyzed by t test significant comparisons, we conclude that: three techniques morphological index yield significantly more than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index over the same period yield, so we think that the three kinds of technical indexes have good hedging tendency. In addition, according to the income is relatively significant, three technical indicators can be used as the reference index of stock index futures varieties, holding the technology under the form of stock index futures, short, gains. |
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