On The Effective Research Of Real Estate Price Fluctuations To Local Fiscal Revenues

Since 1994 tax-sharing system reform, the average local fiscal revenues share of total national income from 1994 to 2009 is 47.5%(ie, the central government took the remaining 52.5%), while local government shares more than 70%(the average is 72.3%) of the country's expenditures. For this situation, someone would ask, "47% of local government's income burdens more than 70% of expenditures, how they live." Real estate develops rapidly in recent years in our country, related tax's proportion increased, its high correlation and strong impetus make real estate become an important source of local fiscal revenues; in addition, following the performance evaluation of "only GDP" standard theory, local government offical may also intensify efforts to stimulate real estate market's development. However, significant price trend of real estate price in China (such as Beijing and Shanghai, more rapid upward trend) triggering a series of social and economic problems.In this context, the paper selects 1997-2009 provincial pannel data of the country's 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, where real estate's developent is more standardized, transaction information is more transparent and government revenue and expenditure is more detailed, establishes Regression Model and research real estate price fluctuations'effects to local fiscal revenues. The results can not only help local government know real estate's different effects to local fiscal revenues in different areas and different times more objectively, but also provide local government a theoretical foundation to make overall macroeconomic policy for local real estate and city development. Therefore, this research has a very important theoretical and practical significance to local even the country's economic development.This paper's process and methods:Firstly, based on raising questions and research significance, this paper systemicly represents research status of domestic and foreign scholars on real estate and local fiscal revenues.Secondly, based on current domestic and international research, with the related theory of real estate and real estate industry, analyse the connotation of real estate's price fluctuation; meanwhile, from the point of industry association, represents the efforts of real estate's price fluctuation to real estate industry and related industries, and analyse the effect mechanism of real estate's price fluctuation to local fiscal revenues.Next, from the macro level, adopting 1997-2009 provincial pannel data of the country's 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, based on the tests of bariables'stationarity and cointegration, make the Granger Causality Analysis; fully considered the influences of sustainability, habits, preferences and other factors of economic individual's behavior and intrinsic dynamic variation properties and dynamic adjustment process in macroeconomic relations, analyse the short-term fluctuation and long-term dynamic adjustment of real estate price to local fiscal revenues respectively from error correction model and dynamic panel data model; taking into account of individual members of regional section (eastern, central and western) is relatively little, used static panel data models, analyse and research real estate price fluctuations'effects to local fiscal revenues.Finally, aiming at the research results, draw conclusions and analyse its causes, whereby put forward corresponding policy recommendations.Based on the research on real estate price fluctuations'effects to local fiscal revenues, educe the following conclusions:Firsyly, according to Granger Causality Test, we know:(1) there is a two-way causality between real estate price and local fiscal revenues which constitutes a complex feedback transmission mechanism; (2) industrial added value is the Granger cause to local fiscal revenues, not vice versa; in addition, below the significance level of 5%, local fiscal revenues is the Granger cause to other tertiary industry added value, not vice versa; but below the significance level of 10%, basically we can consider there is a two-way causality between them.Secondly, based on the analysis of (error correction model of short-term fluctuation and dynamic panel data model of long-term dynamic adjustment) we know that current local fiscal revenues has an obvious rigidity(greatly impacted by the follow),and every year 3.5% of the deviation between actual local fiscal revenues and long-term equilibrium value is adjusted by reverse, tending to equilibrium values; besides, real estate price and the follow price, industrial added value and other tertiary industry added value all have significant positive impact to local fiscal revenues.Thirdly, based on analysis of regional static panel data model section (eastern, central and western) we know:(1) there are differences among the mean value of regional spontaneous local fiscal revenues, the middle is the largest, followed by the western and the eastern the minimum; (2) from the angle of regional structure differences, there are differences in model, among them, internal fluctuations (differences can also be said) of the eastern region has a greater extent than the central and western and the influence is more complicated, the central the minimum, the volatility of the western has been in two regions; (3) from the analysis of individual differences, in tendency change of marginal local fiscal revenues that caused by real estate price fluctuation, change direction of the country's 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions varies; tendency change caused by industrial added value is more uniform, most shows a positive correlation relationship; tendency change caused by other tertiary industry added value most shows a positive correlation relationship, except Shanxi, Jilin and Anhui of the central region is the negative correlation relationship; (4) from the angle of overall average meaning, in relation to industrial added value and other tertiary industry added value, regional real estate price's mean value is the minimum, what's more, the east turned out to be negative, while industrial added value remains relatively stable and important position and other tertiary industry added value emerges a large fluctuation.Based on the above conclusions, this paper presents the following policy recommendations:(1) make the best use, adjust industrial structure rationally; (2) get rid of "real estate imprisoned", achieving local fiscal revenue's inclusive growth;(3) adjust housing structure, rectify the real estate market order;...